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Saturday’s Scoop 6 Races…
11th July, It’s a Rollover and £1.5 million is up for grabs, all you have to do is find the winner of the 6 feature races….
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Get on Frankie Says the Professor....
Godolphin and Frankie Dettori do very well at York and are hitting form again. Moonquake has a huge chance, each-way in the 20 Runner Jihn Smith’s Cup at York, Live on Ch4, Saturday, 3.10.
Moonquake was a course and distance winner in May before going down a neck at Royal Ascot to Perfect Stride, off the same mark as today and should be at least placed today.
Back at 14/1 ew with Stan James.
A good win by Serious Attitude, but Scenic blast had nothing in the tank, thats racing I suppose but at 4/1+ Serious attitude made it a good Friday. Now we turn to Saturday which is a good looking day with top class action on the flat at Chester, Ascot and York.
Cesare- The Saturday's Best Bet!
The feature race at Ascot is the 2.50, Summer Mile Stakes (group 2) which has attracted a pretty decent field. The two main players, for me are Cesare and Imbongi, the latter winning well last time despite a huge drift. Cesare just edges it, on ratings as well as form; Timeform and Offical Ratings are;
Aqlaam is one to avoid in my book, and if the price is right can be laid. Imbongi may be open to further improvement but at Ascot Cesare is the one to be on. Cesare runs best here and has won 4 times at Ascot in the past, each time over a mile. A repeat of his last time second to Paco Boy, again at Ascot, will be more than enough. That was a group one and in this grade Cesare looks a very solid bet. Back Cesare to win is my advice!
This is the big betting handicap of the day and its not at all easy. With 20 runners the winner will be a decent price. I always like to look at the Timeform rating here, which are; weight and Timeform rating….
I show the Timeform ratings to illustrate that there really is little between many of these runners. I will be Dutching Riggins and Kingdom of Fife. For those of you who are not familiar with the term Dutching, it simply means backing two against the field, ie backing two horses. These two look solid and the strategy is to half stakes and back both. As a decent each-way bet Nanton will give you a good run for your money at a decent price. This is a small stakes race, but if I had to name the winner it would be Riggins.
Borderlescott - Back at Chester
I think that Robin Bastiman knows exactly what he is doing and that Borderlescott will win this!
I will side with Borderlescott who is tough, consistent and will run a good race. The price is better than I thought too and suggest taking the early prices as I am sure it will be shorter, so with best odds guaranteed you get the early bigger price and the SP if it is bigger!
A great day of racing, lets hope for more winners!
Saturday’s Free Horseracing Tips…
2.50 Ascot, Cesare, Win
3.10 York, Riggins and Kingdom of Fife (half point each), Win
3.10 York, Nanton, Each-Way
3.30 Chester, Borderlescott, win
Lay…
2.50 Ascot Aqlaam
Good Luck!
Get On Scenic Blast for The July Cup...
The Darley July Cup (3.10) at Newmarket is a very good race, a group one, but its an excellent group one with a host of real live chances. The 6 furlong contest is also the British Leg Of The Global Sprint Challenge and the field has an international look. Below is the declared field.
Class runs through the entire field. The leading contenders are Paco Boy, Art Connoisseur and Scenic Blast, all of whom were Royal Ascot Winners at Group One Level. There will not be much between them and Paco Boy is the most interesting, down at 6 furlongs with Jimmy Fortune on board. Jamie Spencer takes over on Michael Bell’s three year old but it is Aussie Hot Shot Scenic Blast who we are taking to land this one.
The Timeform Ratings are interesting here…
Over 7f then Paco Boy would have this one, but over the 6f Scenic Blast has a turbo boost that will see him home. Here is the Kings Stand Stakes Win at Royal Ascot (from Youtube)…
Though Fleeting Spirit was getting to him, he can come from behind too, watch this race in Australia….
This is a class sprinter who I think will have too much class for the field, but what a field! A group one with all the class in the world.
To Win – Scenic Blast
Each-Way – Fleeting Spirit
Serious Attitude at York
Elsewhere….
The big guns are holding meetings today, York, Newbury, Ascot and Chester. It is a great day for going racing. My other best bets of the day are at York and Ascot. The big race on Friday at York is the Cuisine De France Summer Stakes (fillies’ Group 3) at 2.45. This is a good race featuring Look Busy, Diana’s Choice and our selection Serious Attitude (2.45).
Rae Guest ran her in the 1000 Guineas on her three year-old debut at Newmarket where she was seventh and clearly her trainer feels she is a sprinter. Back in trip, down in class and with a decent weight allowance for her age then this looks like a great bet and is the confident choice.
Lesson in Humility was a good third at group one level at Royal Ascot, but the weight may be the key for Serious Attitude who looks a good filly and may have the class at this trip to win quite well.
Whispering Gallery (3.55) at York makes his handicap debut from a mark of 92. Again the 3 year-old allowance is a big positive but reports suggest that he is a very decent sort and should win this on his way to better things.
One small interest at Ascot is the progressive Lemon N Sugar (4.10) who has won three from her last four starts and I think is still progressing. She can defy a seven pounds rise in teh weights and win yet again.
In Summary…
Some brilliant racing today and some great bets. Here are my recommended bets for Friday (my Free Betting Tips)…
3.10 Newmarket
To Win – Scenic Blast
Each-Way – Fleeting Spirit
2.45 York
To Win – Serious Attitude
3.55 York
To Win – Whispering Gallery
4.10 Ascot
To Win – Lemon N Sugar
Shaping up as a good betting day on Friday. Below is a sanmple of some of the better value bets early in the day. The full day can be followed on From The Horses Mouth’s website.
Nathan’s Bets Bets for Friday…
Dubbo R2 No5 What’s The Danger (1) – very good merit in last start effort 4th btn 1.2l at Tamworth over 1400m in equal quality maiden grade to what it faces here, steps to 1625 which totally suits on the back of last start when it was the only one to make up significant ground hitting the line the hardest in a on pace dominated affair, well bred lightly raced improver by Hussonet out of a Dr Grace mare, looking for this now.
Dubbo R3 No6 Tarho (2) – lightly raced improver and well bred by Danehill Dancer out of a Bering mare, ships north from Victoria on the back of breaking maiden last start by 5l over 1200m at Ararat on a slow track, dictated the speed +2l that day and kicked away revelling in the going, clearly superior and despite margin being fluked and flattered by the wet track had plenty up its sleeve, 1st up from a spell here and drawn well to once again get a very good on pace trip as a likely leader without working too hard early, tuned up with a strong 3.5l trial win on this track over this distance on 20 June, ticks plenty of boxes, hard to beat.
Dubbo R4 No1 So Genourous (2) – has had genuine excuses last two starts, didn’t handle the slow track last start, 2 back missed the start and settled worse than midfield instead of customary on pace role, 4 back scored an impressive win on this track over 1100m with 2nd 3rd and 4th coming out and winning in their next few starts adding good depth to the form out of the race, this first time on a good track since debut win 6 starts ago, gets winkers 1st time, well drawn for a good trip with top hoop G Ryan booked, well placed.
Nowra R4 No6 Celtic Night (1) – on debut here for the astute Price yard and with top apprentice hoop Tommy Berry booked, well bred type for this weakish maiden grade by Secret Savings out of the very good race mare Shurooq, won a trial at Canberra over 900m in good time clocking 34.17s last 600m only trial of the day, only major query is Rosie Sunrise.
Bet on the Aussie Action with Betfair…
Get on at 14/1.....
The Professor of the form book writes exclusively for Racing Diary, every Saturday and for the big TV races.
Horse: Mister Dee Bee
Race: 2.35 Newmarket
Bet: 2 pts Each-Way
Price: 14/1
Ladbrokes are offering 14-1 about Mister Dee Bee who has won his last three races and is as low as 10-1 with other firms. Take Barry Hills’ gelding each-way to complete the four timer in a 16 runner race where we get paid out on the first four places.
Mister Dee Bee has done nothing but improve this season and can win again off a mark of 86. He always seems to do only just enough and could continue his progress here. We will certainly get a good run for our money.
Goldikova class told on Wednesday...
We struck Gold yesterday! First Misheer landed a brilliant win at a price that I couldn’t believe, 4.8 was huge value, as I said, and thus it proved. Then Goldikova confirmed her class by winning yet another group one cosily, also providing a winning lay of Rainbow View, and completing a really good set of results for us.
The July meeting continues on Thursday with the feature race being the group two Princess of Wales’s Stakes. Regular readers will know that I have followed Duncan (3.10) ardently since he joined John Gosden. He ran a cracker last time in the Coronation Cup at group one level, and down in class today should find his grade and win this in style. Duncan finished fourth at Epsom but was less than a length behind Youmzain, Look Here and Ask, all of whom are solid group one performers. The form is rock solid and once again I feel the market is being generous, offering odds that we can not ignore. Group one form in lower grade is always worth following and I recommend taking the early price about Duncan, who I think will win, and is my best bet of the day.
Kitewood (1.30) is also taking a drop in class, to group three level, having being an also ran in Sea The Stars’ historic Derby win last time out. This horse is not good enough to trouble the big boys but in the context of today’s race should be more than up to the task. The stable have hit form, indeed Kirkless was proof of that for us last week. With Frankie Dettori aboard I will be backing Kitewood to get the day off to a winning start.
I was very impressed with Orpen Grey (2.00) last time at Salisbury who ran out the very easy winner, by eight lengths. He is well drawn and hails from the Tom Dascombe stable who won this race last year with Classic Blade. If the rain comes then that would be a negative, but on good ground Orpen Grey should run very well.
This is what Dascombe told the Racing Post;
He had an educational run first time out at Goodwood, where he wasn’t really ready and finished fifth of nine. He then showed a lot of improvement to win his maiden at Warwick. On his third start, at Salisbury, he won by eight lengths eased down, but I don’t think it was much of a race andwe shouldn’t get too excited about it.”He’s a lovely horse with a great attitude, very laid back. He looks well drawn (three) down the far side. Fingers crossed we are hoping for a big run. The only concern I’ve got is what the ground is going to be like. He wouldn’t want soft ground and that’s the only thing that worries me. I just hope it doesn’t get much softer.”
Let’s hope that we have another fantastic day, with racing Live on Channel 4 once again! Remember that Bet365 have a fantastic 4/1 TV free bet offer….
Thursday’s Best Bets at Newmarket
1.30 Kitewood, win @ 2.9
2.00 Orpen Grey, win @ 4.3
3.10 Duncan, win @ 3.5
The Professor of the Form Book...
Exclusive to Racing Diary, The Professor of the Form Book has a 9/1 Each-Way bet for you….
A glance at Cumana Bay’s form figures tell you that she is a consistent filly. But getting deeper into the form tells you that at a best price of 9/1 we have a very solid bet. We have 16 runners in the race and I am anticipating a non-runner so I recommend that the place bet be placed on Betfair, where we will get paid on the first four even if there are non runners. If you get better than 9/1 [10.0] in the Betfair win market then place the win part there too.
Dropping back to 7f following a good win here at HQ over 1m last time Richard Hannon, in the absence of Richard Hughes, has called on the services of Jimmy Fortune. Her mark of only 4lb’s higher than when scoring is reasonable and I think she has a huge chance. More importantly so does her trainer, Richard Hannon, who says
“We start the week with Cumana Bay in the fillies handicap. She has been on a roll this season, with two wins and three places from five outings, and she beat a filly (Charlotte Point) going for a hat-trick when she won at Newmarket last time. That was a mile, but she won over seven furlongs at Newbury, so the trip is not a problem and she has only gone up 4lb.”
The key statement there is “he has only gone up 4lb” which is trainer speak for saying he thinks his horse is well handicapped! That is exactly what I think and will be very surprised if she is out of the frame, the first four on Betfair, but has a huge chance at 9/1 of winning.
Good Luck, The Professor.
Falmouth Stakes…
Having looked at the Falmouth stakes may I say I wholly agree that Goldikova is the stand out bet of the day at the early price on Betfair.
We are relying on fillies at Newmarket….
What a great card at Newmarket, a good card by any standards and outstanding for a Wednesday. We saved our ammunition for today and hopefully we will be hitting the targets with some precision selections.
Rainbow View one to Lay against Goldikova
The highlight is the group one Falmouth Stakes and if at her best Goldikova (3.10) would win this in a canter. The interesting angle is Rainbow View who is getting nine pounds in weight for age allowances but from what we have seen so far this year I can not see her winning this. Looking at the early prices Goldikova is huge value based on her form, if you can forgive her that last run.
Goldikova’s form is exceptional, with her penultimate run being a win in The Breeders Cup Mile at Santa Anita. In the context of this race she is way ahead and official ratings substantiate that quite decisively. The stable are not in the best of form but she has bags of class and at that price I will be a significant backer of a world class filly. I would rate Spacious as the main danger to Goldikova and I advise you to lay Rainbow View.
Goldikova’s trainer Freedie Head says;
“I am very confident. On form she looks to be the best horse, so I expect her to win and win well,”
Watch the Breeder’s Cup Mile at Santa Anita
This is class that should see her home at Newmarket.
The Cherry Hinton is another race for fillies, this time two year-olds, which looks a match between Royal Ascot winner Habaayib and Queen Mary second Misheer (2.35). The Queen Mary was a better race than the Albany Stakes and was decisively won by Jealous Again, who was simply too good for the rest. I think that Misheer will be suited by the step up in trip and will have too much speed for the field. Neil Callan is an excellent jockey who will relish this opportunity to show his talents at the highest level. Misheer is the best value bet of the day, at almost 5-1 there is each-way value to be had.
At a Decent Price….
At a decent price Shamwari Lodge (2.00) looks to have outstanding claims for Ryan Moore and Richard Hannon. She is an improving filly who was just edged out at Epsom last time and drops back to six furlongs where she will be able to put her speed to good use. I think she may be well treated and can land this valuable prize and a nice return for backers.
Remember- BET 365 LIVE TV offer…back a 4/1+ winner and get a Free Bet…
Falmouth Stakes - Newmarket 3.10pm: 2-1 Goldikova, 9-4 Rainbow View, 9-2 Spacious, 6-1 Heaven Sent, 18-1 Eva’s Request, Penny’s Gift, 25-1 Cosmopolitan, 50-1 San Sicharia (EW 1/5 1,2,3)
Wednesday’s Best Bets at Newmarket
2.00 Shamwari Lodge, win
2.35 Misheer, win and place
3.10 Goldikova, win
3.10 Rainbow View, lay
Lay on Betfair..
Elsewhere…
Our Uttoxeter bets were called off due to heavy rain but we have an excellent McCoy bet at Worcester. Hope Road (7.40) has everything in its favour. The excellent trainer teams up with the best jockey of all time! Following up on a good win last time out, Hope Road is an excellent bet and can win for us, rain or no rain.
Get on With Betfair Now…
Main Man McCoy on Tuesday
If your lucky number is 7 then the 7th of the 7th is a good day for you. Sadly though the racing on Tuesday can be nicely summed up as the famine before the feast that awaits us for the rest of the week. The July Cup meeting at Newmarket kicks off tomorrow, then it’s the John Smith’s Cup on Saturday.
It gets better from Wednesday, much better….
Just look at the race card on Wednesday at Newmarket!
Don’t blow your cash on the moderate cards on Tuesday! I will not be getting involved on the flat today but luckily there is a jumps card at Uttoxeter.
Over the Jumps..
Regular readers will know that the first thing I do is look at Tony McCoy’s mounts and he is at the Midlands course for three rides, the best of which is Charmahal (5.50) who I think has an excellent chance. Just beaten at Southwell the front two were some 10 lengths clear of the field a performance for which only a four pounds rise in the weights looks reasonable. On the down side he can be a tricky ride but we have McCoy on our side which is a huge positive and could well be the deciding factor.
Any Given Day (7.50) looks the banker of the day and is definitely one to double up with Charmahal. An easy course and distance winner last time the grey gelding should have no problems in conceding weight to all his novice rivals. The price may not be to everyone’s liking but I will be backing this one, on a day when lets be honest there is not much else to get involved with.
Tuesdays Bets at Uttoxeter
Charmahal (5.50)
Any Given Day (7.50)
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Steve Cauthen was 18 years old when he won the American Triple Crown on Affirmed, and Lester Piggott was the same age when he rode his first Derby winner at Epsom in 1954. But even now that Saturday's post-race adrenalin rush has started to subside, it is possible to argue that in terms of its impact and the manner in which it was achieved, Mickaël Barzalona's victory on Pour Moi has no … [Full Story...]
