Acorn Stakes. (Grade 1). 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $300,000. 3yo fillies.

Run at Belmont Park, Race 9 – Saturday, June 6th, 2009,

Nathan Lynch of From The Horses Mouth marks your card for tonight’s US Racing…

Acorn Stakes @ Belmont Park

A decent field greets us for the 2009 renewal of the Acorn Stakes and 4 horses come in here with realistic chances of taking G1 glory.

Justwhistledixie will be sent out a short priced favourite going on early markets and is a 2.60 prepost elect but with 3 other serious chances she is a risky commodity at that short quote.

The pace scenario will be critical here and it is Gabby’s Golden Gal who is likely to benefit most under the pace scenario drawn down in the 2 alley, she is likely to find the front upon jumping without working early and try to dictate the pace on the front end.

We can forget her last start effort in the Kentucky Oaks which Rachel Alexandra won by a staggering 20l margin, that day she was forced to set a solid pace on the front end as Rachel Alexandra stalked and pressed her through the middle stages, the start prior she won the Sunland Park Oaks at only her 4th career start by a widening 13l margin, our video comment from that run suggests she is well above average and reads “evenly away then forward to sit outside one other coleading at a solid tempo, eased slightly and wide into 1st bend -0.5l 2nd outside coleader, same round 1st turn then as pace slackened down the back pushed on to cross coleader and find fence leading +1l, slowed the tempo before the turn dictating as initial coleader pushed up outside it, field bunching, given minor reign before the home bend, slipped 1.5l clear quickly with further gaps back, chasers under pressure into the bend, +3l 1/4 pole travelling well, straightened 7l clear under hand riding, +9l furlong marker and changed strides, kept finding in deep stretch extending margin to 13l on the line, still strong on the line, clearly superior, big scope for more”.

That effort in $200K stakes company suggests she was well above her foes and up to top class Graded stakes events in the future.

She is very well bred by Medaglia D’oro out of an Ashkalani mare giving her the Sadler’s Wells * Danzig nick which has produced a multitude of top class milers over time.

Dropping back to the mile here after contesting the Kentucky Oaks she will give them something to run down in deep stretch after dictating the pace on the front end.

She obviously took no harm from her Kentucky Oaks failure after working a bullet 1:00.6 over 5f on June 1 in prep for this as the 2nd quickest of 28 moves on the day.

A big value commodity in this race in our eyes.

The major queries to her chances come in the form on Livin Lovin who is by Birdstone out of a Captain Bodgit mare, it resumes from a 7 month break here after annexing a G3 mile race at Aqueduct back in November by 4.2l, 2nd and 3rd both came out and won their next starts adding good depth and merit to the winners performance that day.

Dream Play also has serious claims on the back of scoring by widening 5l margin in the G2 Comely at Aqueduct back in April but that was on sloppy going so the margin was personified somewhat by the track. She is also a query over a strong high class mile being by Hennessy out of a Saratoga Six mare, both sire and dam sire get their best at 6.5f to 7f.

The other major hope is Justwhistledixie who has won its last 5 on end including G2 successes at each of its last 2 starts but the margins haven’t been great and last time it was fluked and flattered by a perfect trip tracking an above average par time through the early and middle stages, she is decently bred by Dixie Union out of a Honour And Glory mare but it is in no way an out and out G1 pedigree.

On this basis we feel Gabby’s Golden Gal is huge value at the prepost price of 15/1, it is unlikely she will end up going around at that price, smart video students will see the merit in her Sunland Park Oaks win, more likely you can expect 8/1 or similar come past time but that is still very good value.

PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER AND ASSESSED ODDS

1st – Gabby’s Golden Gal – 3.80

2nd – Dream Play – 4.50

3rd – Justwhistledixie – 5.00

4th – Livin Lovin – 6.00

BETTING ADVICE:

Win Betting: Gabby’s Golden Gal is very good value considering we have her marked up as a true value 3.80 chance here and prepost she is being quoted on the 16/00 or 15/1 line, we expect her to start shorter than this price but 8/1 should be available which is big overs compared to our assessed price. Dream Play is also at 6/1 prepost and should be available above the assessed price of 4.50 so she too is worth saving on, basically we suggest backiung both these horses with the major emphasis on Gabby’s Golden Gal to roll the short priced favorite Justwhisltedixie.

Place Betting: It is rather obvious that Gabby’s Golden Gal is the way to go here too, her true place price should be around the 1.90 mark, exchange puners will get well above that for first 3 place betting whilst USA tote players will get easily well above that price for the show.

Lay Betting: 3 runners that are all on the 6/1 line prepost represent the value lays being Casanova Move, Doremifasollatido, Four Gifts. As long as you can lay at less than 10/1 or 11.00 on any of these three then lay as many of them as possible, our top 4 elects as mentioned above will fight this race out.