This article titled “Pinstickers’ Guide to the Grand National 2011″ was written by Chris Cook, for guardian.co.uk on Saturday 9th April 2011 09.53 UTC

Don’t Push It

Trying to be the first horse to win two Grand Nationals since Red Rum and he’s also got more weight to carry than any winner since ‘Rummy’. But he had a lot of weight last year and it’s only a few more pounds this time. He hasn’t run over fences for a year so it’s anyone’s guess how much of his ability he retains

Tidal Bay

He’s got so much talent but he doesn’t always show it and he hasn’t won over fences since November 2008. But he was a running-on sixth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and he’s good enough for this, despite all the weight he must carry. Sometimes the National brings out the best in a horse who is a bit of a monkey and that could be him

What A Friend

Sir Alex Ferguson’s horse proves it’s possible to be over-rated and under-rated at the same time. He is not the dog that some punters say he is, having won two Grade One chases and run second to Denman in the 2009 Hennessy. On the other hand, he can’t be a 12-1 shot with this much weight to carry after some underwhelming performances this season. He got outbattled by Noland, a horse who hadn’t won a race for two years, so he’s hard to fancy, even after the promising fourth in the Gold Cup with blinkers on

Vic Venturi

Won the Becher Chase in 2009 and was fancied for last year’s National but he almost got knocked over by a faller at the first and he was taken out of the race by another one later on. He didn’t seem to be enjoying himself or achieving anything much in between, so maybe he needs a bit more than just a change of luck

Majestic Concorde

Being overlooked at current odds of 33-1 but he is inexperienced after just seven runs over fences. His stamina was in serious doubt until his latest run, when he beat a big field over three miles on heavy ground at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting. Having done that, he can win this but he has to overcome his inexperience

Or Noir De Somoza

He’s won more than £1m in France but you’d never know how from the way he ran on his only start in Britain a couple of years ago. Even on his French form, he seems a couple of years past his best and he’s got a lot of weight to carry. Plus he’s never even won over three miles, so stamina is a major concern

Dooneys Gate

He was a decent fourth in a different race over these fences last year and the way he won at Clonmel last time would make you think he could win any race. But he’s got a lot of weight for what he’s achieved and his only win over three miles was in a low-quality race

Big Fella Thanks

He was sixth in the 2009 National and fourth last year, which seems encouraging, but he was actually beaten a bit further last year and both times it looked as if his stamina was running out. His prep race went well but there’s no clear reason why he should improve on what he’s done before

The Tother One

It’s two and a half years since he last won a race. He was a running-on fourth in the Hennessy, which would make him the right type for this, but he’s becoming disappointing

Ballabriggs

This is my idea of the winner, on the basis of what he did at the Cheltenham Festival last year. It was only a race for amateur riders but he was carrying top weight and cruised through it until the final hill. Yes, he got tired but that race was run at a furious pace and he was entitled to run out of puff. He looks exactly the right type for this

The Midnight Club

He’s been the favourite for weeks, partly because Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride him and that counts for a lot, but this horse need’s Ruby’s experience because he’s a bit short of it himself. He’s only won two races over fences and the first of those was just over a year ago. He’s got a lot of ability and a manageable amount of weight on his back and of course he can win but strong National contenders have usually had a bit more practice

Niche Market

He certainly has ability, as he won the Irish National a couple of years ago, but he hasn’t won since and he was pulled up in last year’s National. He was moved to Paul Nicholls, the champion trainer, in the summer and has been given an operation to help him breathe, since when he’s run a half-decent race over a distance that was too short for him. How much faith you have in Nicholls and the breathing op is the question

Silver By Nature

Trying to be the first Scottish-trained winner for over 30 years and the first grey winner for 50 years, he’s a likeable, brave horse who has slogged through the mud to win two valuable races at Haydock. But it won’t be muddy at Aintree on Saturday and that means this one probably won’t be fast enough

Backstage

Fancied for last year’s National and was running well until stumbling over a loose horse on the second circuit. Since then, he’s had a really odd preparation for this year, being well beaten in a handful of races and then winning a couple of point-to-points, a lesser form of racing that isn’t recognised as part of the real sport. Any Grand National horse should be up to winning a couple of point-to-points, so Backstage has a lot to prove but he’s just 12-1. He was double those odds last year

Chief Dan George

He won a big race over hurdles at the Grand National meeting four years ago and his win at the Cheltenham Festival last year made him look like a Grand National type but he’s done nothing this season, in common with most of the horses from his stable in Cumbria. This requires a major return to form that is probably beyond him

Calgary Bay

He’s got plenty of ability and was a respectable sixth in last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup but he’s got a low strike-rate, just one win in the last two years. Part of that may be down to the poor form of his stable, which has had just a couple of winners since November. He’s a sound jumper who might run into a place

Killyglen

It’s a couple of years since he won a race but he still shows a fair bit of talent when things go his way, in races with small numbers of runners. In races with more runners, he always seems to disappoint and he may not be quite tough enough for this sort of thing

Oscar Time

He was a good second in last year’s Irish National and has been aimed at this since. He ran a nice prep race last time, he’s normally a sound jumper and you can see him going well. He’s ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen, the amateur jockey who won the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month

Quinz

Last year it looked as though jumping fences wasn’t going to be his game but he’s really got his act together this winter and he looks full of talent now. He won the Racing Post Chase last time and he looks talented enough for this but he’s only seven years old and no horse that young has won this race since 1940. In recent Nationals, two-thirds of the seven-year-old runners got rid of their jockey at some point

Northern Alliance

Stamina is the issue. Ruby Walsh got a lot of praise for winning the 2009 Kerry National on this one because he managed to nurse the horse to victory over three miles, which was thought to be too far for him. This race is half as far again. He’s loaded with talent and he ran really well in a two-mile hurdle race in January but when you can do that, you can’t usually do this

Becauseicouldntsee

He’s inexperienced, having been a novice over fences last season, when he was second at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s only had one run over fences this season but he was second again in a valuable race at Leopardstown over Christmas. You have to respect him on that effort but the question is whether he’ll be able to cope with this so early in his career

Comply Or Die

It’s three years since he won his Grand National and he hasn’t won anything since, though he was second the following year behind Mon Mome. That race, two years ago, was the last time he showed anything like his best form. He’s not too old for a revival at the age of 12 and he’s got a nice weight this time so, at 50-1, he could be overpriced

Quolibet

He’s only seven years old, younger than any National winner since the evacuation of Dunkirk, he’s fallen in three of his last six starts and he ran poorly on his only run since he left France to come to Britain. Who would be the jockey?

Grand Slam Hero

This is a really interesting outsider from a stable that’s already won a couple of Grand Nationals. As long as the racing surface is sound, with no soft in it, he’s got the class to run into a place. The issue is jumping, because he can make mistakes and he fell at the first in the Galway Plate last year

Roll Along

It has always looked as if there could a big race in this horse but he’s getting old and he’s had injury problems. He was lame as recently as last weekend and his two runs this winter have been so poor that it’s hard to hold out much hope

State Of Play

He’s obviously the right type for this race. He was fourth in the 2009 National and then third last year, although he was actually beaten by a greater distance. His trainer has been circumspect with him, which is the sensible thing to do with an 11-year-old steeplechaser, but we haven’t seen him in public since last year’s race and, although he’s got a nice, low weight, what sort of state he’ll be in when he turns up is just guesswork

King Fontaine

He’s not very experienced, having been a novice as recently as last season, but even allowing for that his jumping is a bit sketchy. He has won a couple of decent races this season but even then he hit the odd fence and he obviously won’t get away with that here. He’s got class but he needs to grow up fast

In Compliance

Great things were forecast for this one when he won a Grade One race at the end of 2006 but he’s had injury problems. Still, he’s a good jumper and he was sharp enough to win over a much shorter distance in February, so there are worse 50-1 shots than this

Hello Bud

A former Scottish National winner, he ran a great race to be fifth in last year’s National and then he won the Becher Chase over these fences in November. The problem is, it did look as though he ran out of stamina in last year’s race and now he’s 13, older than every National winner since 1923, so it’s hard to fancy him to do any better this year

West End Rocker

He’s won a couple of big-field handicap chases this winter and can be forgiven his poor effort last time when the ground was seriously testing, which it won’t be on Saturday. He makes the odd mistake and he’s not very quick but he could get involved.

Santa’s Son

Stamina is an issue because he’s never even won over three miles before and he hasn’t had many chances. He’s basically a two-miler who is going to be a bit surprised when they go out on the second circuit. He hasn’t won over fences for more than two years so this isn’t going to be Christmas for him

Bluesea Cracker

She’s trying to be the first mare to win a National for 60 years and she must have a chance because she won the Irish National last year and that has often been a good indicator for this race. She ran poorly last time but can be forgiven, as it was only a prep run, and she can do well here

That’s Rhythm

He’s flying the flag for Bangor, which is the only course where he’s managed to win over fences, three times. But they don’t run the really good races at Bangor and he tends to look a bit slow elsewhere. He was an early faller in the Scottish National last year

Surface To Air

Some of us had forgotten all about this horse. He won the Summer National at Uttoxeter in the middle of 2008 and was never heard from again until he turned up at Market Rasen last month for his first race in almost three years. Clearly, he’s had serious injury problems but, if he’s over those, and if he’s fitter than he was last month, he might just get into this

Piraya

He got round in his own time last year and that’s probably the best he can hope for again. He doesn’t really stay three miles, never mind four and a half, and he’s only had one win in three and a half years

Can’t Buy Time

He’s fallen in the last two Grand Nationals and if he makes it past the 18th fence this time, he’ll be into uncharted territory. Even if he leaves the fences alone this time, he probably wouldn’t have the necessary stamina

Character Building

A respectable seventh in last year’s National and he’s got a bit less weight this time. He’s a Cheltenham Festival winner from two years ago, so he’s got a bit of class about him, but he can get left behind in races like this and he only makes up the ground very steadily. The winner is likely to have a bit more zip

Ornais

Used to have some ability but he got sidelined by injury for a couple of years. Since he came back this year, he’s been beaten in a couple of hunter chases, really straightforward races, so it’s hard to imagine that he’s still good enough

Arbor Supreme

He was fancied for last year’s National but unseated his rider at The Chair. He’s got a bit less weight this time and he ran a great prep-race when he was only a length behind The Midnight Club at Fairyhouse. He hasn’t won for a couple of years but a case can be made for him

Royal Rosa

It was December 2006 when this one last won a race. It was the only time he’s ever won over fences and he beat just one horse. He has run well in the Becher Chase a couple of times, including in November, but he was running poorly in last year’s National when unseating his jockey before halfway and something like that is a lot more likely than victory

Skippers Brig

This is quite a classy beast and, even at the age of 10, he still has a bit of pace about him. Stamina is really the issue and he may not be able to keep going all the way to the line. Also, he’s more comfortable on soft ground, which he won’t get

Golden Kite

He goes well on decent ground but, even if there is no soft in it, he might struggle to stay this distance, as he barely gets three miles on a sound surface. He won the Munster National in October and warmed up last month in a hurdles race

Verdict

1 Ballabriggs
2 Majestic Concorde
3 Grand Slam Hero
4 The Midnight Club

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