Nathan Lynch previews the Group One Emirates Stakes card at Flemington with more expert top tips on a busy weekend of racing.
Big Day at Flemington
Flemington R1 No14 She’s Got Gears (1) – on a quick 4 day back up here after winning over this track and distance on Melbourne Cup day, came from midfield with a withering turn of foot to get the better of its foes close home scoring by 0.2l over Shaaheq, spaced the rest in a large field putting a further 4l back to 4th, form refs back through the btn brigade suggest it has the measure over the raced brigade here, numerous first starter present minor queries but race experience signals this one out as the clear top elect, very well bred for speed by Invincible Spirit out of an Encosta De Lago mare, currently trading at 7.40 on exchanges represents good value, anything above 5.00 is acceptable.
Flemington R2 No7 Lucky Thunder (2) – well bred type by under-rated sire son of Danehill in the form of Lucky Owners who was a dual G1 winner in Hong Kong winning the Hong Kong Derby and Hong Kong mile, this one is out of a Thunder Gulch mare called Smytzer’s Thunder who was a winner 2 from 4 before injury cu5t short its career and she is out of a Danehill mare called Danish Pastry which provides a rare double cross of Danehill so close in the pedigree of this one, more importantly Lucky Thunder looks superbly weighted here going on form from last preparation when 2nd up finished 3.3l 3rd to Heart Of Dreams over this track and distance in the G1 Cadbury Guineas, held sway for a minor placing over very smart types NIcconi, Fravashi and Eagle Falls that day, form refs through Eagle Falls 6th who the start prior finished 2nd to Pre Eminence can be lined up back to the other major hopes here Markus Maximus and Larry’s Never Late through Stokehouse and Flatchat to suggest Lucky Thunder clearly has those 2 covered at the weights here, Lucky Thunder also looked impressive 2 starts ago over 1533 at M Valley scoring by 0.8l hitting the line very hard suggesting good scope for further improvement, ticks enough boxes here to warrant a level (2) rating, well placed in this and at 4.50 on exchanges currently is very good overs, true value quote in our books is 3.20.
Flemington R3 No3 Occidentalis (1) – decently bred type by Scenic out of the Rory’s Jester mare Rosa’s Wish (minor query through dams side on stamina for this 2000m trip) and has never been further than 1600m previously, comes into this 6th run back this preparation and at peak fitness now, prepared to totally forgive last start effort last Saturday over 1400m when down the track at G3 level behind Centennial Park, go on effort 3 starts ago winning at Listed level over 1600m at Pukekohe in New Zealand by 3.3l, defeated a high class field for the class including Nom De Jeu 2nd and Boundless 7th, numerous form refs out of that race suggest is capable of winning at G3 to G3 level under the right circumstances, in well weighted here on that basis vs the likes of Timetable and Raffaello who are the top 2 in betting markets, booking of Damien Oliver for astute trainer Rickard Otto adds confidence., currently available at 7.40 on exchanges, anything better than 4/1 or 5.50 represents decent value.
Flemington R5 No6 Mic Mac (1) – very even field encounters us here with 5 of them having serious claims so playing the value angle influenced mainly by the likely pace scenario, decided to lean towards Mic Mac on top who was slightly unlucky last start at M Valley when 2nd to Apache Cat btn 0.2l in the G2 Scweppes Stakes, got caught wide with no cover and battled on very strong whilst Apache Cat got a dream trip and split at the perfect stage, definitely much more merit associated to Mic Mac’s run, gets blinkers 1st time here and with only 1 likely leader engaged (Bank Robber) will get the run of the race 2nd, has a sharp turn of foot under the right conditions and gets those conditions here, will be the one most likely to chase down Bank Robber at the business end.
Flemington R5 No7 Bank Robber (1) – 2nd up from a spell here subject to big improvement on the back of finishing 3rd to Apache Cat 1st up over 1200m in M Valley btn 0.7l, did all the work on the front end and battled on very strongly once headed in the stretch run never shirking the task, likely to get a fairly soft trip on the front end here after getting pressured 1st up by Lucky Secret, improved fitness and the suitable pace scenario will see it dig deep and prove very hard to run down here, if Mic Mac fails to fire in deep stretch then we feel Bank Robber may hold sway and at the juicy price of 10/1 warrants serious respect in a very even field on current form.
FLEMINGTON R6 EMIRATES STAKES 1600m G1
Flemington R6 No4 Vigor (1) – decided to go around the Cox Plate winner in this race who only rates equal with Vigor at the weights off numerous different form lines off his Cox Plate win taking a line back to Vigor through his effort defeating Typhoon Tracy 4 starts ago over 1600m in the G2 Makybe Diva stakes, last start Vigor finished 3rd in the Caulfield Cup btn 2.8l by Viewed and here drops back to 1600m, last win came over this track and distance defeating Typhoon Tracy with good margins back to the likes of Master O’Reilly, Heart Of Dreams and Predatory Pricer, drawn perfectly from the 1 alley he should get a nice cart into the race and over the long stretch get every chance to close with big pars and get home over the top of them at the business end, as stated playing the value angle here avoiding So You Think who is under compared to its true chance in betting markets so backing this one along with Eagle Falls and King Mufhasa for a result across the race vs So You Think.
Flemington R6 No9 Eagle Falls (1) – on the quick back up here after winning 7 days ago over 1200m on this track by 0.8l in the G2 Salinger Stakes defeating Turffontein, form refs through that win where Absolutelyfabulous finished 3rd puts this one only 1kg below Vigor here at the weights when lining up Absolutelyfabulous back to Typhoon Tracy through their meeting in the Coolmore Classic at Rosehill in March, this one subject to further improvement the way it closed the race off well last start over 1200m hitting the line strongly so it should appreciate the step to a mile despite being btn twice at this trip last prep behind Pre Eminence and Heart Of Dreams, has had a wind operation since and trainer David Hayes now confident it will get the mile, improvement puts it in this up to its ears at the weights.
Flemington R6 No6 King Mufhasa (1) – well btn last start when 3rd up over 1600m at Caulfield in the Toorak Handicap behind Allez Wonder but prepared to forgive that run, go on 1st up effort this preparation when 2nd to Lord Tavistock over 1400m at Hastings in New Zealand at G1 level, that effort suggested ready to hit career peak some time this prep, was a dual G1 winner in New Zealand at the end of 2008 and also won a strong G2 1600m at Riccarton leading into those 2 G1 wins defeating Vosnee Romanee 1.3l which franks the effort 1st up this prep, a line can be taken through its 1st up effort this prep back to Daffodil and Vigor in the Caulfield Cup suggesting it has the better of Vigor here at the weights, once again in this up to its ears at good double figure odds if that formline stands up, bonus booking of Damien Oliver from the good 5 alley for a favourable on pace trip under an even tempo, likely to be the one that Vigor and Eagle Falls have to run down in deep stretch.
FLEMINGTON R6 EMIRATES STAKES 1600m G1 Betting Advice
Due to backing 3 horses in this race below we have detailed the betting advice for this race to maximise profit
No4 VIGOR – currently at 11.00 on Betfair, outlay 4 units
No9 EAGLE FALLS – currently at 15.00 on Betfair, outlay 3 units
No6 KING MUFHASA – currently at 19.00 on Betfair, outlay 2 units
