Can Spain follow on from Euro 2008 and win the Confederation Cup in South Africa
The Confederations Cup begins in South Africa on Sunday 14th June 2009, with the hosts South Africa facing Iraq (live on BBCi) in the opening game. A slightly strange affair, the Confederation Cup, where the winners (plus runners up in some cases) of the four FIFA regions (Europe, Africa, Asia and Americas) come together in the year between the regional championships (like Euro 2008) and the World Cup, and contest a low profile competition that gives the World Cup hosts a chance to test their facilities and their ability to cater for the influx of visitors from around the world (odd then that despite so many friends that follow football around the world, not one of my friends has ever been to a Confederation Cup match!). In fact, the competition smacks more of a “custard cream moment” at a FIFA meeting where somebody thought they had come up with a great way to make more money for the world football authority but in fact created a chore for the national sides trying to qualfy for the World Cup and a bore for the players who want to be on a beach or in a nightclub somewhere!
However, this years competition looks slightly more lively with some quality (the best?) teams and some managers and players clearly stating their intentions to go to South Africa and win the Confederations Cup and we can look forward to some keenly contested games. The two Groups in the Confederation Cup are made up of hosts South Africa, Iraq, New Zealand and Spain in Goup A and USA, Italy, Brazil and Egypt in the more difficult Group B.
At Racing Diary, we will be taking a keen interest in the Confederation Cup for betting purposes and throughout the Competition we will be providing football tips and bets where we think there is money to be made. For today, we take a look at the participating teams and the fixtures and provide a couple of tips for the competition that we think provide punters with some value.
Confederation Cup Group A
South Africa
South Africa failed to get past the African Cup of Nations qualifiers, but as hosts of this competition and hosts of the World Cup in 2010, they are automatics into this competition. Bafana Bafana (The Boys, The Boys) look unlikely to trouble the more established nations in this competition, but are quoted as low as 10-1 in some places but can be found at around 25-1 on Betfair which is probably a truer reflection of their chances as South Africa’s FIFA ranking has slipped to 72 over recent years and unlike many African nations, they are unable to boast the large numbers of players playing in the top European leagues (with a few exceptions like Steven Pienaar who has been in outstanding form for Everton this season and is a likely summer target for some much bigger teams). They look out-classed in this competition AND in the FIFA World Cup and could face goals against, despite home crowd support.
Prediction – out at the group stage
Iraq
Iraq contrast sharply with South Africa’s fall in the FIFA rankings as they have risen from 85th to 77th and have 3 wins from their last 5 games. In the context of this easier group, Iraq may be no mugs and a win against New Zealand and a draw/win against the hosts is not beyond the realms of possibility and that gives them an outside chance of going through to the semis albeit on goal difference. At 200/1 and more to win the competition I wont be going anwhere near Iraq for an outright win, but their first match against the hosts in the competition opener could provide an upset (I will almost certainly be taking the draw in that game as all sides will be looking “not to lose” their opener) and 3.7 to qualify from this group looks much better value than the 1.46 available on South Africa.
Prediction – my tip for a shock semi-final place
New Zealand
The OFC Nations Cup was not marked on my calendar last year and fortunately I didnt manage to watch a single game of this “kick about in the park”. New Zealand’s on 7.8 on Betfair to escape the group stage looks laughable and anything around 1000/1 to win the Confederations Cup outright is a far more realistic assessment of their chances – no chance whatsoever! They have taken part in this competition twice before and twice lost all three group games so dont expect a run for your money if you back them in any of their group games. Think Andorra and you are fairly close to the standard of football. Dont go there.
Prediction – P3 W0 D0 L3
Spain
Spain finally came good and lived up to their potential in Euro2008 and many think that they are a good thing for next years FIFA World Cup here in South Africa. The squad for this competition oozes class with all the big stars playing (except Iniesta, my star of the European Champions League Final who misses out due to injury) and the easier group makes them a nailed on qulaifier to the semi-final stage. It will be difficult to find value backing them to win their group matches or qualify from the group (1.03 on betfair) but beware line-up changes when backing first scorers, wait until the teams are announced! I will look for some value on some of the lesser players to score during the group games but I wont be staking may bank.
Prediction – I expect this classy side to outclass allcomers and win the competition
Confederation Cup Group B
USA
The USA “Soccer team” have never really performed on a world stage and at 40/1 to win the Confederation Cup and a very skinny 3.15 to qualify from the group on Betfair, they would seem unlikely to trouble Italy and Brazil as Group B reaches its conclusion. Bob Bradley has taken USA steadily up the FIFA rankings to now rank 14, but I still take the Italians to beat them in this group, with Brazil being a shoe-in for qualification. But I wont be taking any odds on this group until I see the first Italian line-up as an unexpected draw (or win!) for the USA against a greatly changed Italian side could make that 3.14 seem like value. My advice is find yourself a reliable source for the Italian line-up and make a decision based on that.
Prediction – Unlikely to beat the “full Italian side” but if Lippi bloods the Italian youngsters then a draw could leave the USA in a good position to move forward so grab the odds and trade in play on the first game if necessary!
Italy
Italy have been known to take a casual approach to friendlies but they will hopefully be up for this competition, their first appearance in the Confederation Cup. My concern is that Lippi tests the depth of his squad and the fortitide of some of his promising youngsters included in the squad and that could be their undoing, opening the doors for the improved USA. In a reasonably strong World Cup qualifying group, Italy are 14 points from 6 games (W4 D2 L0) and they may trouble Brazil with the full side but as mentioned earlier, I will be waiting to see Lippi signal his intentions with regard to this competition.
Prediction – A small (acceptable?) number of new introductions should see them qualify ahead of USA and a poor Egypt side and they may trouble Brazil who they out rank on FIFA terms.
Brazil
Brazil arrive at this competition as second favourites despite some poor results in World Cup qualifying (and a good earner for me in this respect!). Their Confederation Cup record is very impressive, winning the competition twice and they arrive with the full compliment of stars like Kaka, Pato, Elano and Robinho but as always with Brazil, its a question of whether they really need to win the game and although they have an excellent defensive record of late, they have not been scoring as freely as we would like to see and their opening game against Egypt will tell us which Brazil has turned up, the football maestros or the guys waiting to get to the Copa Cobana Beach! Either way, the first game will be a Brazil win, but it will tell us if Brazil have turned up looking for a win in this competition.
Prediction – Spain are seemingly a better side at the moment in many many respects. If Brazil fail to beat Italy and score a hatful against Egypt then they could find themselves up against the Spanish at the semi-final stage and that could see an earlier than expected demise, but otherwise I would expect to see them as beaten finalists.
Egypt
Dont even think about it! Around 55/1 on betfair for the competition and the jokers are out in force, offering only 3/1 currently on Betfair for Egypt to qualify out of their group (this will clearly change as the competition begins). Egypt even let me down in a 3-1 defeat to Algeria recently and their Cup of Nations success seems a long time ago based on recent results. Our survey said an emphatic “NO!”.
Prediction – Dont do it, dont back them to win a single game (even against USA!), dont back them to qualify out of their group and certainly dont back them to win the competition!
Confederation Cup Fixtures
Sunday 14th June 2009
Group A, South Africa v Iraq, 3.00pm, BBCi
Group A, New Zealand v Spain, 7-30pm BBC3
Monday 15th June 2009
Group B, Brazil v Egypt, 3.00pm BBCi
Group B, USA v Italy, 7.30pm BBC3
Wednesday 17th June 2009
Group A, Spain v Iraq, 3.00pm BBCi
Group A, South Africa v New Zealand, 7.30 pm BBC3
Thursday 18th June 2009
Group B, USA v Brazil, 3.00 pm BBCi
Group B, Egypt v Italy, 7.30pm BBC3
Saturday 20th June 2009
Group A, Iraq v New Zealand, 3.00pm BBCi
Group A, Spain v South Africa, 7.30pm BBC3
Sunday 21st June 2009
Group B, Egypt v USA, 3.oopm BBCi
Group B, Italy v Brazil, 7.30pm BBC3
Wednesday 24th June 2009
1st Semi Final, Group A winner v Group B runner-up, 7.30pm BBC3
Thursday 25th June 2009
2nd Semi Final, Group B winner v Group A runner up, 7.30pm BBC3
Sunday 28th june 2009
FINAL
Prediction and Betting tips for Confederation Cup
Take Spain to win but keep a close eye on Italy when Lippi signals his intentions a picks his first team.
