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SATURDAY 31st May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice MAJOR CADEAUX WILL MARCH TO VICTORY
“He's in great form but I hope it is raining up there. It is certainly raining in the south but I'm not sure about the north," said Hannon. "I'd like to run him before possibly having a look at the big sprint at Royal Ascot (Golden Jubilee). But he doesn't want it too quick at the weekend." Major Cadeaux is a rock solid favourite and is one of the bets of the day. BEST PRICE – Click HERE for latest betting FRIDAY 30th May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice BRILLIANT FRANKIE DETTORI … If you backed Finalmente then this was an excellent race, if you were on the favourite you have to say that the best horse did not win the race. Dettori is one of the best jockeys in the world and showed the others what they have to aspire to. Quite simply it was magnificent, but I wonder why Royal and Regal did not make the running, surely he would have out stayed the rest? Although I was on Royal and Regal I can not help but applaud the brilliance of Frankie Dettori. Other jockeys should take note, and I suspect a few would have felt inferior having watched the replay. Long may Frankie grace our sport, he may be a great personality with a great media image, which some people love and others hate, but lest we forget he is a really brilliant jockey. THURSDAY 29th May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice WELL DONE MEL BRITTAIN … Knavesmire led home a shock one-two for Mel Brittain in the prestigious Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley. The One Cool Cat filly showed a smart turn of foot under Joe Fanning to defeat stablemate Caranbola by a neck. Aspen Darlin was third, another three-quarters of a length in arrears, while 11-4 favourite Percolator was withdrawn at the start. Of Knavesmire, Brittain said: "She ran very well at York last time when she missed the break a little bit and the ground was too firm. "We wanted to get her placed in a Listed race and she's done that now. "The other one (Caranbola) is also a lovely filly and is still progressing." Royal Ascot is unlikely to feature on the radar of either Knavesmire or Caranbola, however. Brittain added: "We'll go home and obviously think about it, but I don't think they'll go (to Ascot). "She (Knavesmire) has done her job now and is probably still a bit weak." Corrybrough preserved his unbeaten record this season with an impressive victory in the Beverley Racecourse Conditions Stakes. The Kyllachy chestnut was ultra-impressive when scoring at Sandown last month and created another favourable impression when coming from last to first to defeat Hammadi by two and a half lengths. Trainer Henry Candy said: "He's amazing, absolutely amazing. "Ryan (Moore) absolutely loves him and never got serious at any stage. "I only made my mind up to run him 30 minutes before they went off - it was borderline. "We'll probably now go for the Listed race at Sandown (Scurry Stakes). "We just have to be careful with him until the autumn - he's got a lot of growing up." WE SAY: WEDNESDAY 28th May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice Beverley's Listed 2YO Fillies Race Tonight … Whatcombe trainer Paul Cole is anticipating a very bold show from Percolator when the daughter of Kheleyf chases a hat-trick in the Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley. HILLARY NEEDER VERDICT 1 Point Win Percolator TUESDAY 27th May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice Lets Hope Henry Navigates to Epsom… The Derby picture has been cloudy, until its was hinted that dual classic winner Henry The Navigator was a Derby possible. He is the only horse that is worthy of winning the Derby that we have seen this year. The Three Year Old category this year is unclear but Henry The Navigator looks a top quality horse. Though a top quality miler, Coolmore bred this horse for The Derby and it would be fitting for Henry The Navigator to win The Derby. We have not had a real quality three year old for years, yes Authorized and Motivator were good horses, but they did not sustain their winning, Henry just might. I think if he runs he is clearly the best bet for the Derby!
Get on now at 5/1... You can get an amazing 5/1 with Ladbrokes and William Hill on HenrytheNavigator. Huge price, for a horse that has won two Group One's and I for one think Coolmore can not resist the temptation to have a Classic Winning Grand Slam horse. Click HERE for Current Derby Prices. SUNDAY 25th May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice Uttoxeter Winners Sorted...
3.50 Uttoxeter – Sunday May 25th 2008 Race Analysis and Tissue Prices. POLIGLOTTI 9/2 – Yet to win in 23 starts. Disappointing last time in a modest race and looks to have stamina limitations. This track on good ground might help in that respect but the main positive is that his excellent stable are persevering with him. TOP ACHIEVER 15/2 - Raised 8lb for winning a very modest race at Hereford 2 starts back. Ran as though badly handicapped last time and may need to drop a few pounds before he is of interest. NORBORNE BANDIT 16/1– Irish raider who is difficult to weigh up but has looked a bit short of pace and may find this test plenty sharp enough. MERRYVALE MAN 28/1 – Grand servant for small stable over the years and posesses a willing attitude. Returns to the track after an absence of 2 years through injury and will probably need the run with his wins tending to come quickly after his previous run. His jockey is the least experienced in the field. LIBERTY SEEKER 16/1 – Formely useful in all disciplines and very well handicapped on his best form. The worry is that he has shown little since returning from injury this year and needs to re-capture his old form . ELAALA 5/1– Hit purple patch last Autumn but pulled up in November with something analysis. Did run creditably next time out in a better race than this and is a previous winner over course and distance. Sure to win more races but his fitness has to be taken on trust after a 6-month absence. SPACE STAR 9/1 – Fairly useful hurdler but chasing was always going to be his game. Didn’t really progress from smooth winning debut though and returns to hurdles after looking to lose confidence over fences following a fall at Taunton. He is on a nice mark back over hurdles and if fit after his break could run well. FUEL CELL 20/1 – Yet to win over obstacles but has run well on a few occasions. May prefer a stiffer test though and might find one or two too good here. MANGO CATCHER 11/2 – Done well over fences for small yard since coming over from Ireland. Returns to hurdles after a tumble last time and is feasibly handicapped. This track is noty ideal for his hold up style but his capable amateur pilot takes 3lb off and must be a threat if hurdling fluently. His last race over hurdles was in 2005 though. PRIMITIVE ACADEMY 22/1 – Hit with a 9lb rise for a fortunate win sporting first time blinkers at Leicester in a poor race. Well beaten 3 times since and may need to drop a few pounds before regaining the winning thread. SONIC ANTHEM 18/1 – Does not look the strongets of stayers and despite ideal conditions could find others finishing with more purpose. SUMMARY: A tricky race with doubts about most of the runners. ELAALA looks a live contender on her progressive form last year and she may be able to resume winning ways. MANGO CATCHER may be the danger if he hurdles fluently . POLIGLOTTI is likely to finish close up but has a less than solid overall profile and SPACE STAR is interesting at bigger odds off a good mark. 5.00 Uttoxeter – Sunday 25th May 2008-05-24 Race Analysis and Tissue Prices. COLLEGE ACE 10/1 – Has not been finishing his races with great enthusiasm of late. Handicapper starting to relent but needs to show a bit more spark. Vulnerable off top weight here. MR FLUFFY 12/1 – Starting to look well handicapped but needs to step up on recent efforts to take this despite a drop in class. SUPERROLLERCOASTER 16/1 – Can look good at a low level but has 3 dismal runs to put behind him after winning at Folkestone in December and cannot be supported unless the market strongly suggests otherwise. HEART STRINGS 12/1 – Had a good spell last year over hurdles. Taken reasonably well to fences and chances on form but does not look overly well handicapped and has a big weight to carry for a mare. THORSGILL 12/1 – Has had his problems and been difficult to train but has a reasonable chance on his form. Would like to have seen a professional jockey on board though. RANDOLPH O BRIEN 8/1 - Has ability but his jumping is cause for concern as he often makes several blunders during his races. Good chance with a fluent round but that is a big uncertainty. YA I KNOW 18/1 – Looked very moderate and his second last time out amounts to little. Not impossible he can improve but certainly needs to if he is to take home the prize today. MOUSTIQUE DE L’ISLE 18/1 – Small stable does well with staying chasers but this fellow may need the heavens to open if he is to win. Well handicapped but broke a blood vessel last time and that has to be a concern. EARNEST 14/1 – Lightly raced and may have improvement left. Did win a staying hurdle last year but ran a stinker when last seen out in June. Presumably excuses for that as not seen out since. Market may provide a clue as to what is expected today. HISTORY MASTER 11/1 – Bounced back after a nasty fall at Plumpton to run second over hurdles. Reasonable chance if jumping well back over the bigger obstacles and ground may suit. RETURN HOME 5/1 – Consistent sort who has been given a real chance by the handicapper. Unexposed over 3m+ and has looked as though he would find some improvement for it. Ran a rare poor race last time but looks to have a favourites chance here. CASTLEMORE 20/1 – Put up a woeful display at Fontwell last time and is basically slow. Likely to find a few too quick for him around here. CLASSIC ROCK 25/1 – Has shown some ability but is another with a touch of the slows. May find it hard to keep in touch around here and although he should be staying on, will possibly find one or two to beat him. GUMLEY GALE 16/1 – Is getting on in years now but showed he was no back number when winning nicely last October. Could easily run well from this mark but has not shone at this course on 3 previous visits. GOOD MAN AGAIN 50/1 – Has ran above himself on more than one occasion but more often that not fails to finish. Shown nothing this year and cannot be supported with confidence despite tumbling mark. SUMMARY – RETURN HOME is on a losing run but has run consistently well and I think he is handicapped to go very well over a trip that ought to suit. Dangers aplenty but HISTORY MASTER makes some each way appeal and THORSGILL has the ability to go well if fit on return from another break. SATURDAY 24th May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice Seconds Out Round Two ..
I am sure that New Approach is the better of the two and I am sure that the Irish 2000 Guineas has always been his main target. The ride that Henry the Navigator was given by Jonny Murtagh was spectacular, making his decisive move at just the right time, in order to prevent New Approach coming back into it, which he certainly was. Jim Bolger is a very good trainer and I have no doubt that he will have learnt an awful lot about not just his own horse but also about his opponent and will have his battle plan drawn up. That said Aiden O’Brien just keeps plundering the top races and is one of the best trainers in the world. Not an inch will be given and you can fully expect another ding dong battle for the crown that both camps will be desperate to win. Spice is added to the occasion by the fact that Sheik Mohammed paid a lot of Euro’s to acquire New Approach, who runs in the colours of his Wife Princess Hiya, and will be equally determined to win at the expense of Coolmore. I think New Approach will win, but don’t be surprised if Henry the Navigator proves his win at Newmarket was no fluke. There is also the possibility that Jupiter Pluvis, who was withdrawn at Newmarket could be better than both of them. Jonny Murtagh was due to ride Jupiter Pluvis at Newmarket signalling that he was ahead of Henry the Navigator in the pecking order at Ballydoyle. Its all fascinating stuff and what top class horseracing is all about. Irish Guineas Verdict:
FRIDAY 23rd May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice Hardly Rocket Science, is it? .. Thursday, Salisbury... Wednesday, Ayr... The above was reported in The Racing Post and takes some digesting! Salisbury hardly committed the crime of the century, but it doesn’t strike me as difficult to run to time. There are unavoidable delays but going off early is just incompetent! Incompetence is a topical word. Woeful Wednesday as it is being dubbed illustrates clearly the ineptitude that is rife within racecourses. WHY WATER THE GROUND? Why can we not race on Good to Firm Ground? If you have a horse that likes top of the ground, you are in trouble. It is not the first time this has happened and if this is all you have to do in life, and you cant even get it right then stand aside and let someone who knows what they are doing get on with it. Quite clearly watering courses does more harm than good and is creating a situation where courses are more dangerous by adding water then by letting nature take its course. How many more times does it have to happen? Last season we had problems at Haydock and Warwick, now Ayr and Sandown, you don’t need to be Sherlock Holmes to draw the startling conclusion as to where lay the common factor. Last year we took our horse to Wolverhampton, to race on the All Weather surface. It was abandoned because it was cold. So the All Weather surfaces are actually All Weather, except for snow, frost, cold weather and wind. All of these factors were reasons for abandonments at these so called All Weather venues in 2007. THURSDAY 22nd May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice Two Year Olds to Follow This Season ..
Spanish Sun had a short but successful career for the Stoute team. She only ran 3 times, but won the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. Spanish Sun’s brother, Spanish Moon, has already won twice, including a listed race this season. All this bodes well for the aptly named Cordoba, a daughter of Spanish Sun. Maraahel has been a great servant to connections and of his 8 career wins all bar one have been at Group 2 or 3 level. Maraahel’s half brother, Almuktahem, is another with Sir Michael Stoute. Remarkably 3 of Maraahel’s wins have come in the Huxley Stakes at Chester (he almost made it 4 in a row this season.) My next two selections also have connections with the Roodeye.
Her first, and sadly only foal is a filly called Rose Diamond, again with Roger Charlton. Speciosa’s win in the 1,000 Guineas was a triumph for the underdog as she came from a stable more used to getting winners in novice hurdles around the gaffs. Her half brother, Classically is by the sire, Indian Haven, himself a surprise classic winner from an unfashionable stable when taking the Irish 2,000 Guineas in 2003. I followed a horse called Mutajarred last season with some success as he won 3 times and has to date never been out of the first 4. His half sister, Little Conker who is my next selection from Roger Charlton’ string.
21st May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice Man United and Chelsea Take Power Battle to Moscow, But Who will Come out on Top?
The European balance of power has already tilted England's way. Now the seat of power will be determined in Moscow.
The match also comes 40 years after United won their first European Cup and 50 years after the Munich air disaster that killed 23 people, including eight players. Latest Betting- CLICK HERE 20th May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice WARNING – DRAW BIAS AT BEVERLEY… At some courses the draw is a consideration, more than others, but at Beverley, over sprint distances the draw is critical. Indeed low draws over 5 furlongs are almost impossible to overcome. An interesting exercise is to look at the declared non-runners and see where they were drawn! Sometimes you can get a good few lays using the draw. You want sprinters with a high draw! The draw bias is now a key part of the market. The draw bias at Beverley is so important to the point where it is ridiculous and it must be addressed, but when you are betting take note of it. I found an interesting article on the internet, by David Renham on Draw Bias and here is an interesting extract;.. My comment – “the market has caught up” is best explained looking at two Beverley sprints six years apart. The first race to consider is a race run on April 13th 2005. It was a 20 runner class 3 (or “C”) handicap sprint over 5 furlongs. This 5f trip at Beverley is renowned as possibly the most biased distance in the country, in terms of the fact that high draws have a significant advantage over low draws. The result read as follows : 1st Fonthill Road 7-1 (drawn 17) The first three home were not surprisingly well drawn, but also well fancied with prices ranging from 9-4 to 7-1. Now for a 20 runner handicap, those prices are “tight” to say the least. In contrast, let us look back at a 19 runner handicap class D handicap sprint over 5f run at Beverley on 8th May 1999. (N.B. there was one non runner). The result read : 1st Black Army 12-1 (drawn 20) Big difference here, with the three highest drawn horses, (who happened to come first, second and fourth), being offered at 12-1, 16-1 and 20-1. Having the three highest drawn horses all at double figures odds six years on just does not happen – regardless of form etc. The draw bias is so well known now, that the prices on the best drawn horses are arguably much shorter than their true odds. Going back to the April 2005 race, the prices of the top 3 drawn horses were 9-4, 6-1 and 9-1. All single figure odds and, one of them, at the amazingly short price of 9-4 - in a 20 runner handicap! Clearly the market has caught up – the prices of the well drawn horses are much shorter than they would have been a few years ago. Gone are the days of big prices on the best drawn horses at Beverley. Another interesting fact about the 1999 race mentioned above is as follows – on that day Dominelle was a 7-2 chance. You should be amazed to know that Dominelle was drawn 7. To compare with the 2005 race, the shortest price of the single figure drawn horses in that race was a massive 22-1. Another comparison of interest - in the 1999 race only two single figure drawn horses were bigger than 25-1; in the 2005 example, eight of the nine single figure drawn horses were 40-1 or bigger. YES – the market has caught up. In short- you simply must take note of the draw!
Classic Rematch is On..Roll On Saturday...
There is nothing better than seeing 2 greats slug it out! Who do you think will win? Email us- click HERE 19th May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice THE MONDAY MOAN... There’s 57 Channels and there’s nothing on.. a song that is an apt metaphor for today’s racing. 34 UK races, from 5 meetings coupled with 8 in Ireland and what you have on a box standard Monday is a lot of racing. But is it good racing? No.. there are elements of respectability, and with the exception of Windsor its pretty poor stuff. How many people will venture to Dunstall Park this evening? Not many is my bet. Windsor have done very well with their Monday night racing. A good card and a decent crowd make this a good fixture and well worth our support. Why bother with Wolverhampton too, it seems that its just been put on for the sake of it. Two meetings this after noon would suffice too. It is a strange thing that today there are more meetings than last May Day Bank Holiday! Although one meeting (Newcastle) bit the dust, there were less races scheduled that day with only three of the four going ahead. Race planners will say they had no evening racing that day though, but common sense would ask why? Surely a Bank Holiday Evening is a great time to hold evening racing? Am I mad? Or have I missed something? A normal run of the mill Monday and we have more racing than a Bank Holiday? I would not be complaining if it were good. Look at the quality of the races, the prize money and you will see what I mean. I will give it a miss until tonight, Windsor merits an interest and I cant help thinking if there were less racing, the prize money could be re calculated to offer less but higher quality fare.
MOAN 2- We All Make Mistakes, and No One Died...
Who can say that they never make an error? Footballers score own goals, Chefs under cook steaks and shop keepers occasionally give the wrong change, but what happens, you get a sympathy and you work harder next time. I would bet that Sam Thomas won’t do that again, so why does common sense not prevail and you operate a yellow card, red card system. Give him a yellow card and then if he does it again it’s a mandatory 28 day ban. NON TRIER’S GET A 28 DAY BAN…this is blatant cheating and its seems crazy that an honest mistake should get 17 days. Non Trier’s should therefore be given a 3 month ban to make it proportionate.? 17th May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice Will Cesare Win the Lockinge?
The race is competitive, that said he is still officially the best horse in the race, with a BHB mark of 120 and with going being GOOD, with more rain forecast, this will suit Cesare down to the ground. However, his new mark was boosted by five punds as a result of his Ascot win, which given the opposition is a false steer, in my opinion. Creachadoir is a genuine Group One animal but would have been suited by faster ground and Phoenix Tower is the one most likely to improve and has yet to be beaten in his four lifetime starts. I spoke about how you should back your instincts and trust what you see and you cannot fail to be impressed by Cesare, and he is a class act and in this form he could take a lot of beating. I would not be diving in too heavily but Cesare looks a good bet at 3-1.
16th May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice Well Done Geordieland...and Shane Kelly
Sergeant Cecil was unable to relive the glory days, but still remains the favourite of the crowd and there will be other days for the Sergeant
Why Sergeant Cecil Cannot Lose Today... Day Three of Three at York...The Stayers Day
Sergeant Cecil is Yorkshire’s adopted son and typically he arrives to defend his crown even though he is out of form. He is not expected to win, but if he comes to deliver a challenge, there is a real possibility that the crowd will lift him over the line. Just to be there for his adoring public today makes him a winner.
Sergeant Cecil is a definite favourite of the Yorkshire crowd, he has won on the Knavesmire four times in the last three years. He has Won the Ebor and he took the Yorkshire Cup twelve months ago. He has so many qualities that endear him to the Yorkshire crowd, qualities that perhaps they fully identify with! He hails not from one of the big stables, nor does he carry the colours of one of the powerful owners as he has climbed the ranks he has taken on the mantle of underdog. Today once again he is the Underdog, but write him off at your peril. Time and time again Sergeant Cecil has dug deep, his determination to win and bravery has endeared him to the Yorkshire’s knowledgeable and appreciative audience. Last year his victory in the Yorkshire cup was hard fought and brave and rarely has their been such a frenzy after a race at York. When the Knavesmire crowd take you to their heart then you better have the tissues ready, just ask Henry Cecil how they can move the object of affection to tears. Sergeant Cecil probably faces his toughest test yet on the course he loves so much. Since winning this race in 2007 he has raced four times and has only beaten a total of four horses home. The other concern is the going, although a winner on firm ground, he does favour softer conditions, today it is good to firm.
There are eight runners for the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup, over 1m 6f at 2-40, and strong favourite is Honolulu, trained by Aiden O’Brien. Sent off favourite for the St Leger he was beaten 1 ¾ lengths into third place, then again was beaten favourite at Ascot in a group 3 over a shorter trip. In my opinion the form is not great, but this is a weaker than usual Yorkshire Cup with question marks against most of the field, Geordieland second last year has one major problem, and that is winning, he just can not do it. He travels like a winner in his races but just finds nothing at the end, clearly a symptom of his reluctance to let himself down as a result of previous bleeding problems. This was demonstrated last time he ran at Pontefract when he was again second, beaten at odds of 1-4. I would change tactics on Geordieland, and run from the front, this is the only way I can see him even having a chance of winning. They always try to do the same thing, hold him up, it doesn’t work so why not try something different? Alfie Flits is a good horse but just comes up short at the highest level and is passed over today. Similarly Young Mick, Samuel and Veenwouden, at their best they have a chance but they look to come up a bit short in this company. Royal and Regal is the one that has outstanding claims having already landed a group 3 this season. Formerly with Andre Fabre Royal and Regal is now trained by Michael Jarvis, for whom Neil Callan has struck up a good association. I think Neil Callan is one of the outstanding prospects of the weighing room, giving absolutely everything to his mounts, be it a seller or a group race. Royal and Regal has the highest official rating of the field and looks to be improving. The one worry here is the ground, again he has only raced on Good to Soft or softer. We need to put our faith in the trainers assessment of his charge. It is a difficult puzzle, yet again to solve and it may be set up for a remarkable underdog victory for the Sergeant, but I fear not. Instead I will put a small amount of faith in Michael Jarvis and have a small bet on Royal and Regal, and a small each way on Sergeant Cecil, and may I stress small. I will be cheering as loud as everyone else if Munro delivers the Sergeant and as has happened before the crowd will lift him over the line. Lets hope that the horse already in Knavesmire folklore can further enhance his legend at a course where more than anywhere else he stands for everything that the Yorkshire people hold so dear. GOOD LUCK SERGEANT CECIL- you are Yorkshire’s adopted son today!
15th May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice TWICE OVER TO EXCEL IN DANTE.. Day Two of Three at York...The Dante Derby Trial
Unbeaten in his three starts to date, the most recent an impressive win in The Craven Stakes at Newmarket, Twice Over is sure to figure in the Derby shakeup. Connections are keen to get a run into him, and assuming he runs then Twice Over is taken to record a victory in the race that was successful as a trial for Authorized 12 months ago. The rest of the field are by no means there to make up the numbers, but the race would lose a lot of its significance were Twice Over to abstain. Of his five opponents two of them are from Goldolphin who showed a glimmer of form when Folk Opera landed the opening race here yesterday. There big race performance so far has been below their usual high standards and both their runners are passed over, which is something punters do at their peril, but I can not see them winning today. Centennial is a very good each way bet to nothing, in my opinion. John Gosden has a strong hand in the three year old division this season and Centennial stamped his class when taking a Group 3 contest over 1m 2f last month at Sandown. He just did enough to prevail by a length and is sure to come on for the run. Frozen Fire hails from the powerful Aiden O’Brien stable, but their Derby contenders look thin on the ground and it would take a leap of faith to seriously back Frozen Fire today. Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore team up with Tartan Bearer, a lightly raced son of Spectrum who is stepping up from Maiden company, having won a modest event at Leicester in workmanlike fashion last month. That was on Good to Soft ground, and we certainly know that the trainer knows a good horse when he sees one. The race revolves around twice over, should he run then he should prevail, but then there are doubts about the going and whether that will affect him. That said Henry Cecil is one of the best trainers of all time and punters can put faith in his judgement. If he runs he should win and Twice Over is my Win selection Today. Dante Verdict Twice Over is also my NAP of the Day. Gamble at York.... Professional Betting Information The supporting card offers some very good racing and I know of a very very good bet. If you would like to get this information then please call
14th May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice Dar Re Mi hits all the right notes for Musidora Puzzle! Day One of Three Fabulous Days at York... The opening meeting of York's season is always eagerly anticipated and never disappoints.. The Dante (tomorrow) and Musidora have become the premier trials for the 1m 4f Epsom classics and attract the cream of the British, Irish and European three year olds. The Dante was won last year by Authorised, who went on to win at Epsom and Passage of Time who won last Year’s renewal of the Musidora was sent of favourite for the Oaks as a result of her victory. Today’s feature is the Musidora Stakes, where fillies take centre in this Oaks trial, and what a race we have in prospect. CLICK HERE for the Musidora Racecard. Betting in 3 year old classic trials is never easy! There are just too many unknown variables, trip, ground and above all the well being and fitness of the horse. Trainers often do not have them 100% primed, using the trial as a stepping stone to optimum race fitness. The Musidora has all those imponderables , and more in abundance today! Eight runners go to post for this Group 3 contest where some big reputations are being put on the line. Jim Bolger saddles LUSH LASHES who ran well in the 1000 Guineas and was running on well at the end, suggesting that she is a middle distance horse rather than a miler. Her breeding would also indicate this and hailing from a stable who continually produce top class three year olds means Lush Lashes has to be afforded the highest respect. She is likely to start favourite. Group One form is significant in this context as what we are assessing with this field is potential.
Aiden O’Brien has already plundered a British Classic this season, and anything he saddles has to be seriously considered, given the fire power that Coolmore has at their disposal. Moonstone looks to be the type to improve as the season goes on, much like Peeping Fawn last year who got better and better. She is one of the market leaders for the Oaks, and clearly this is a lot down to her stable, but we will see if that position is justified later today! I do not easily dismiss her chances but I can not back her on reputation alone. Cruel Sea is another who is the subject of good reports, but in truth more was expected of her first run of the season. So, you are no doubt thinking that what I am saying is that actually I don’t have a clue! Well there are plenty of clues, but to what they are pointing to is an educated guess. However, I am a big believer in trusting what you see, and as soon as Dar Re Mi won at Sandown I backed her for the Oaks. I have learnt that there is no substitute for your own judgement, and if something takes the eye you should trust what you see. I have in the past ducked away from my instincts, instead being put off by the press, the market and indeed any negative that went against what I had seen. Too many times was I left kicking myself, so this year I have made myself trust my instincts. Of course I am not always right, but the feeling of being wrong about ones instinct is nothing compared to the feeling you get when you go against your instincts, only to be proved right all along. The best example I can give is at Catterick, a conditions race where Mark Johnston saddle a very short odds on favourite in a three runner race. The second favourite from Ed Dunlops stable looked amazing in the paddock, and though I do not put myself as an expert paddock judge she just stood out, glowing in her coat and looking absolutely fantastic. So I backed her and she won very very easily! In years gone by I would have listened to the market and either backed the favourite or ducked the race altogether. Dar Re Mi was impressive at Sandown and I was taken with what was only her second lifetime start. What we did learn is that she gets the trip, has an impressive turn of foot and will improve for that run. We do not know if she will handle Epsom but she certainly will handle York today. From what I have seen I think that the Andrew Lloyd-Webber owned filly has classic claims and should endorse those today and I think represents excellent value at around the 3/1 mark. Musidora Verdict: 1 point Win Dar Re Mi @ 3/1 Gamble at York.... The supporting card offers some very good racing and I know of a very very good bet. If you would like to get this information then please call 13th May 2008 - Click Here for Telewin Betting Advice Welcome to the new look Racing Diary… I will use this page to share my thoughts, and hopefully offer you some interesting and informative writings about the sport. For those of you who follow our horses, then I will keep you all abreast of their progress as well as my own progress as I aim towards taking out a license to train. I can not stress enough that I invite you to contribute and if you would like to submit any thoughts, previews, articles or comments then please do so. Obviously editorial control is reserved, but lets make this the independent voice of racing and betting! |
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