Nathan Lynch, from down under, marks your card for the Saturday racing in Australia. If you like Aussie racing then Nathan’s site is for you.
Racing down under
Rosehill R4 No9 Classics & No6 Halekulani - enough depth to back 2 here at the early prices on offer with big confidence for a winning result, overall the depth of this race is well above Listed level and shapes a big future form race with plenty of winners likely to come out of it, Classics can be forgiven for its last start average effort behind Squamosa, her debut win was top class scoring by 4.3l at Canterbury albeit on heavy ground, she has big scope for further improvement on that run being so lightly raced, she represents the major hope, the other one of major interest Halekulani is superbly bred and looked very smart on debut scoring by 2l at Canterbury, his trial win prior at Randwick knocking off subsequent wide margin winner Al Aseel was also very impressive, major scope for more here, at 6.50 (Classics) & 8.00 (Halekulani) they can both be backed to equal degrees of confidence for a good result across the race. Decision Time is a massive lay as the 3.30 early favorite, expect it to drift closer to 5.00.
Rosehill R5 No7 The Embassy & No8 Scottish Border - no doubting Herculian Prince looked a smart type winning 4 times on end last prep but the depth of those staying events has to be questioned, The Embassy looked a world beater defeating Alexander Of Hales by a widening 4l in the Randwick City Stakes at G3 level last prep and on a repeat has Herculian Prince cold, must play the value angle at 11.00 on offer for The Embassy, Scottish Border also has claims as an improving stayer bred for this type of trip by Danewin and comes into this on the back of a good win over Legsman last start, big margin to 3rd, that form ref through Lockmar 3rd home back to Hawk Island and subsequently Snow Alert suggests Scottish Border has a fair bit on Scouting Wide, if that form line proves true it is capable of shaking this at a good price, also 11.00 on early fixed odds markets, back both The Embassy and Scottish Border at the 10/1 on offer for both for a result across the race. Scouting Wide is the value lay in early fixed odds markets on offer at 3.25 or 9/4.
Rosehill R6 No4 More Joyous - returned in superb order winning 1st up last start with 59kg on her back defeating a very strong Listed field over 1100m by 1l, hit the line strongly suggesting this 1400m is totally what she is looking for 2nd up from a spell, no doubt she is a high class G1 galloper who is destined for big things this preperation (Cox Plate well within her reach if connections choose to go that way), this should merely be a stepping stone, exceptionally good value in early fixed odds markets at 2.60, anything better than 2.00 or 1/1 is value, Drumbeats, Rothesay and Descarado should be fighting out the minor placings. Brilliant Light is a big value lay at 5.50 in early fixed odds markets, expect it to drift significantly closer to 8.00 on race day.
Rosehill R7 No1 Patronyme – the pace scenario and barrier draw is critical here with so many of these so evenly matched, admittedly this one has been asked to lump a big weight but it will go forward from the 6 alley and get a fairly good trip on the front end without being asked to work too hard early (most of the other speed drawn outside it), this factor may offset the big weight, 2.3l trial win over Tickets in prep for return this prep reads well and 3rd up last prep won the G3 Birthday Stakes over this track and distance over 2 very smart fillies Beaded and Melito, very good odds at 10.50 in early fixed odds markets and warrants backing as the value commodity here. Verballed cant win so if they bet less than 10/1 about it on the exchanges it becomes the lay in the race.
Moonee Valley R6 No1 Reward For Effort - the top 3 in the betting market look very evenly matched on exposed current form but a few factors make us lean towards Reward For Effort here, he is 3rd up and rock hard fit whilst the other 2 (Haylist and Catapulted) are both 1st up, also Reward For Effort looks the most adaptable under the pace scenario and drawn the 1 alley is likely to be onpace without working early but can relax and get the run of the race stalking the leaders if need be, they all look very smart sprinters and have it between them, not really a major betting race for us. Too many ifs and buts to me laying any of the major 3 in the market here with any confidence.
Moonee Valley R7 No5 Shoot Out – looked exceptional winning 2nd up in the Liston Stakes G2 defeating Predatory Pricer then copped a very hard trip 3rd up but battled on very strong considering when 1.5l 3rd to So You Think last start, very good hidden merit, likely for a much better trip here stalking Typhoon Tracy, on numerous form references has her measure and also has the measure of Whobegotyou, well placed and very hard to beat, 2.80 in early markets seems very good value, one of the banker bets of the day. Typhoon Tracy as equal favorite early at 2.80 represents good laying value.
Moonee Valley R1 No7 Pitt Street & No14 Almindora – the betting market looks fairly correct here (on seen exposed form) but we have minor queries around the depth of the form that will come out of Servant’s last start 2nd to Sistine Angel so we lean towards Pitt Street on top who carries similar form refs through his debut 4th to Soul over 1000m at Flemington, the step to 1500m 2nd up here totally suits it on breeding, obvious queries around the wide draw but mot a lot of speed is engaged so it should cross and race on pace without working too hard early, there is a big value commodity we will also back here in the form of Almindoro who is by Redoute’s Choice out of the well related Machiavellian mare Alalunga (3rd dam is the Canadian blue hen No Class by Nodouble and she is considered one of the great blue hen mares of the 20th century), so back both Pitt Street on offer at 7.50 approx and Almindora on offer at 50/1 and better for a result across the race.
Moonee Valley R2 No2 Berlioz - shapes as a very weal race in terms of overall depth with not many seen chances, went the way of the lightly raced Zabeel 5yo Berlioz who looked very good 2 starts ago unleashing big closing pars to win over 1700m at Flemington on a slow track, that run suggested he is back to somewhere near the form he showed as a 3yo in early 2009 when winning the VRC St Leger on the back of finishing 2nd in the WA Derby, he has scope for further improvement on that 2nd up win this prep and after the claim gets in here very well weighted, ticks plenty of boxes for an inform yard, very good value at 9/2+ in early markets, anything better than 5/2 is good value.
Moonee Valley R3 No8 Sussuro & No2 Miss Gai Flyer – very open affair with lots of mixed form lines creating excellent value about plenty of the runners engaged here, leant towards the well bred lightly raced Pivotal filly Sussuro on top here, stable whispers are very strong for this filly from one of our scouts and she was an impressive trial winner over Pinker Pinker by 1.5l on a heavy track at Cranbourne prior to her debut last prep, that form ref has since been franked with Pinker Pinker winning twice on end last time over a strong $76K Open 3yo fillies field at Flemington, the other one at value odds that makes big appeal is the Flying Spur filly from the Moody yard Miss Gai Flyer who can be forgiven for her 1st up failure last start, her win over Trisara 3rd up last prep over this track and distance puts her right in this up to her ears, she rates equal with Sussuro on that run, so back both of them for a result across the race, Sussuro 7.50 and Miss Gai Flyer 9.00. The value lay in this race is Cristallo currently 2nd favorite at 7.00.
Moonee Valley R4 No10 Off The Planet - well bred lightly raced improver by Fusaichi Pegasus who comes into this 1st up from a spell well drawn in the 3 alley to secure a good trip stalking the pace from better than midfield, very good effort over this distance 4th up last prep at Sandown scoring by 2.8l, in well weighted vs the other major hopes and looks the best of these at the weights in a fairly even field, no major confidence but likely odds of 6/1 or better (currently 7.00 on Betfair, market set to 113.8%) suggests it is the value angle to play. The value lay is Big Spirit who looks likely to get a tough trip drawn the 11 alley.
Moonee Valley R5 No14 Yoburg & No2 Elusive Touch – this looks a good betting race, leant towards the well weighted Yoburg on top here who comes into this shipping from Sydney and 2 impressive wins this prep on wet tracks by big margins both times at Randwick, the 6yo son of Johannesburg looks to be in career best form now and looks totally suited to the Moonee Valley layout, despite being drawn wide he has sharp gate speed and if he crosses the face of the field early without working too hard early he will prove very hard to run down in the stretch, currently at 20/1+ he offers great value, the other major player is the 7/2 favorite Elusive Touch and if Yoburg was not engaged we would be prepared to declare Elusive touch one of the ‘good things’ of the day on the back of winning 2 from 3 this prep including a very smart G3 win at Flemington last start, with M Rodd booked he looks likely to secure the run of the race stalking the leaders on the rail, so back both Yoburg 20/1 and Elusive Touch 7/2 for a very confident result across the race, obviously at the odds outlay more on Elusive Touch.
Moonee Valley R8 No15 Jolie Brise & No11 Valdemoro – another very good value betting affair here on the M Valley card, the odds assessors have totally missed Jolie Brise in our opinion here, she is currently on offer at 50/1 on the exchanges and 40/1+ with bookmakers, she is very well bred by Fastnet Rock out of the Last Tycoon mare Vestey (G3 Port Adelaide Cup winner) who has already produced the Listed winner Rutherford Eagle, she comes into this 2nd up and can be forgiven for her 1st up failure at Caulfield when btn 4.1l by I’m A Hussy over a totally unsuitable 1100m (steps to a more suitable 1600m trip here), she won 2 trials in prep for her return suggesting she is more than capable of firing on all cylinders this prep and she won 3 on end this time last year on wet tracks defeating the likes of My Emotion and Set For Fame into 2nd on each occassion before then finishing 0.9l 4th to Irish Lights in the G1 Thousand Guineas over this trip, she is likely to go forward here and race on pace in a race devoid of early speed and get a very good trip, she ticks way too many boxes to be such a big price and must be backed, there is 2 big class runners in the field in the form of Valdemoro and Faint Perfume and we feel Valdemoro is the class runner worth also backing out of those 2 as she is likely to settle closer to the pace than Faint Perfume over this 1600m trip and Faint Perfume is sure to be better suited over a bigger track like Flemington so on that note Valdemoro gets its chance to turn the tables here on Faint Perfume but may struggle to run down Jolie Brise who looks likely to get it soft on the front end. So back both Jolie Brise at the big odds and Valdemoro (on offer at 7/1 or 8.00) for a result across the race, Confidence is strong considering the value on offer for a big collect, the value lay here is Ghost Milk likely to trade around 4.30 to 4.50 on the exchanges, she has won 4 of her last 5 but this is a major step up in class and she looks overexposed here taking that big step up in class against high quality mares.
