Nathan Lynch of From The Horses Mouth has some interesting tips for you on Monday…
Free Horseracing Tips from Nathan Lynch
One of the lowest quality fields anywhere on Monday has to be that of the 4.15 at Lingfield. This race is full of exposed types that have all had their fair chance of reaching the limelight except for one of them being the lightly raced wide margin last start winner Dane Cottage who seeks to make it 2 wins on end here.
The 3yo Beat Hollow filly last start looked highly impressive last start beating up on a 3yo seller field at Leicester scoring by a widening 11l when different riding tactics were employed by connections. The bare form through the winning margin suggests she improved on her previous form in leaps and bounds and that is backed up by the time she ran (only 0.43s below standard). Since t5hen she has been raised 6lbs in the handicap but that is offset here by the 7lb claim for Adam Beschizza who this season has a 12% strike rate in turf races.
Dane Cottage being lightly raced should hold that new level now and easily account for her foes here in what as earlier stated in realistically a weak race. Orsett Lad & Mr Maximus look the only 2 capable of troubling her but they both need to produce career best efforts to do so.
Dane Cottage should make it 2 wins on end here and at the 3.20 being bet on the exchanges currently represents good value. We have her marked up as a 2.50 chance in this field.
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A betting move worth making note of early in Monday betting action is the money that has come for the David Nicholls trained Tres Amigos in the 3.30 at Wolverhampton.
The 3yo Exceed And Excel colt switches back to the AW for the 1st time this campaign after failing miserably on turf in stronger races at its last 3 starts. At the end of its 2yo campaign last year it bolted up at Southwell over 7f by 4l and gets in very well weighted here on that performance. Considering the fact it made all on the front end that day the drop back from 7f to 6f here has to be of major benefit.
The stable has been agonizingly close over the last week in a lot of races with Striking Spirit, Joseph Henry and City Dancer all at good odds. Maybe this is the big priced winner that so desperately await them.
His form says he can win if he can refind his best back on the AW. Il Forno, Novay Essjay and Admin shape as the logical dangers to his chances.
He is easily available at 9.0 on the exchanges currently, good each way odds about a horse proven against much stronger.
Cape Quarter – Attractively Weighted
The 3.15 at Lingfield on Monday sees Aegean Shadow all the rage and deservedly so the way he has flashed big closing pars winning 2 from 2 this term but there is one that lurks down in the weights that has big scope for improvement and will go around an attractive quote that warrants specking. That horse is Cape Quarter.
Aegean Shadow trades at 1.95 & Cape Quarter trades at 15.0 early on Betfair so the obvious value lies with Cape Quarter.
Cape Quarter comes into this race 3rd up from a spell on the back of two average runs this time in but both of those runs were on turf but his best form was on the AW last season. On debut Cape Quarter flashed home with eye catching closing pars beaten 2.7l by Star Links over this track and distance as a 2yo in October 2008. Then he reappeared as a 3yo last season at Southwell and annexed a 7f 3yo 5K maiden scoring by 0.5l. That day he was very green when asked to extend but quickly put the issue beyond doubt suggesting big scope for further improvement.
He is very well bred by Elusive Quality out of the Sadler’s Wells mare June Moon and is closely related to two German 2000 Guineas winners.
He gets in here carrying 19lbs less than Aegean Shadow which is a big weight pull under the circumstances. With that in mind the 15.0 or better that will be bet about this son of Elusive Quality looks rather attractive.
For more value picks daily for UK, USA & AUS racing go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au
Bajan Tryst – Live Chance At Odds
The 2.45 at Lingfield on Monday may well be a good way to start off the punting week with a bit of value. A field of 10 runners greets the starters and good value exists around BAJAN TRYST who early on Betfair is trading at 15.0 and likely to drift to closer to 20.0 as the market thickens.
The 4yo son of Speightstown represents the astute yard of K Ryan who has a 21% strike rate on the AW this season landing 25 winners from 120 runners and the respected hoop Neil Callan also goes better than average on the AW with a winning strike rate of 21% landing 33 winners from 157 rides this season on the AW.
Bajan Tryst is 2nd up from a spell now and 4 starts ago looked the goods making all at Wolverhampton over 6f finding plenty at the business end to score by a widening 4l margin. The form out of that race through the btn brigade reads well for what he takes on here. He shapes as potentially well treated under the weights scenario being rated only 4lb higher than he was when recording that wide margin win.
The overall pace scenario looks a query but don’t be surprised to see him stalk over this sharp 5f trip or if gate speed allows he may cross and try to make all again. Bottom line is that the drop back to 5f should not hinder his chances.
Captain Carey, Steelcut and Doric Lady look the major dangers, the rest merely make up the numbers.
For more value picks daily for UK, USA & AUS racing go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au
