Nathan Lynch of from the horses mouth previews for all races to be run at Meydan in Dubai on Super Thursday, 4 March 2010. This is the major lead up meeting to Dubai World Cup night and is jam packed with high class Group 1 quality race horses from all corners of the globe.
Meydan 3.35 1m1f110y Lstd
No2 Enak G1+
No4 Della Barba G1?
No6 Solid Choice G2+
No8 Vale Of York G1+
No10 Kona Coast G1-
No11 Storm Chispazo G1
No15 Landowner ??
Despite only being a Listed quality race it will take a horse of the highest quality to win this event, we are talking a G1 performer realistically that is need to take the prize here such is the massive depth of this field overall. 3 horse make major appeal, the first is the former Argentinian galloper now with Saeed Bin Suroor Enak who won a mile G1 event at San Isidoro in May 2009 4l*2l with Storm Chispazo finishing a well beaten 10th, Enak has since had 1 start in Dubai finishing down the track behind Mendip but that run can be excused, it looks a true G1 quality horse on its San Isidoro win, the 2nd one of major note is also a Saeed Bin Suroor trained galloper in the form of Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Vale Of York, he defeated numerous proven G1 performers annexing the Breeders Cup Juvenile and with the stable in such hot form the son of Invincible Spirit simply can not be ignored, the third one of major note is the unexposed Shamardal colt Landowner who has won 2 races recently at Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi in prep for this contest and the form out of both of those races through horses like Beethoven suggest it will be super competitive here.
1st No2 Enak
2nd No8 Vale Of York
3rd No15 Landowner
Win Betting – No2 Enak shapes as very good value likely to be bet around the 25/1 mark on the exchanges, back it each way, No8 Vale Of York is likely to start 2/1 favorite or thereabouts, so leave it alone, No15 Landowner will be available at better than 20/1 and can also be nibbled at.
Value Place Bet – No15 Landowner
Enak winning the G1 Gran Premio Clasico Gran Criterium – San Isidoro, Argentina
Vale Of York winning the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile – Santa Anita, USA
Meydan 4.15 6f G3
No2 Desert Party G1+?
No3 Barbecue Eddie G2+?
No5 Mrs Boss G1+,+?
No7 War Artist G1?
Once again this race will take a sprinter of the highest calibre to win despite being only a G3 race in terms of advertised purse and class, overall on that basis it shapes as a race in 2 between the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Street Cry 4yo colt Desert Party and the Brazilian raider Mrs Boss who herself is very well bred by the under-rated son of Wild Again, Wild Event, leaning is towards the speed machine Mrs Boss despite being beaten 4l by Global City over 6f on her Meydan debut on 18 February, she led that day and wilted due to fitness but is sure to have come on significantly for that run and her 3 wins in Brazil in February and March 2009 by big spaces were sprinting efforts of the highest calibre, form refs out of those races suggest she will give a huge sight here on the front end and prove very hard to run down in deep stretch, likely good value will be bet compared to Desert Party who twice defeated Regal Ransom at this carnival last year so it is likely to be short in the market especially considering it represents the very hot and popular Saeed Bin Suroor yard, Mrs Boss for us is the bet to make all on the front end.
1st No5 Mrs Boss
2nd No2 Desert Party
3rd No7 War Artist
Win Betting – No5 Mrs Boss is likely to bet around the 18/1 to 20/1 mark on the exchanges and does look very good each way value, No2 Desert Party is likely to be around 6/1 or 7/1 as our 2nd elect and also shapes as good value to be backed to win along with Mrs Boss, they have it between them. No7 War Artist is too short to be backed as the 3rd elect.
Value Place Bet – No5 Mrs Boss
Desert Party winning the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas – Nad Al Sheba, Dubai
Desert Party winning the G2 Sanford Stakes – Saratoga, USA
Meydan 4.50 1m G3
No4 Al Arab G1?
No5 Forgotten Voice G1+
No6 Skysurfers G1++
Another G3 race that is well above the advertised level in terms of class of horse competing in this race, 3 horses make appeal as high class potential G1 horses on their form at Meydan so far and it is clearly Skysurfers who looks the best of them, once again another charge from the super hot Saeed Bin Suroor yard which is having a sensational carnival, Skysurfers is undefeated having only its 3rd career start here after winning a lowly maiden on the All Weather at Southwell by 10l in a field of 13 in October 09, 1st up this time in Dubai last start it blew away a good field including Eagle Mountain 2nd btn 3.2l with form refs through those btn further back suggesting he is a high class stakes winner on the make, the scary thing is that was only his 2nd career start and he has so much scope for further improvement, Al Arab and Forgotten Voice look to be the only minor dangers but it is simply impossible to ignore the way Skysurfers won last start, it should remain undefeated after this contest.
1st No6 Skysurfers
2nd No5 Forgotten Voice
3rd No4 Al Arab
Win Betting – No6 Skysurfers is the deserved favorite in this race and is likely to be bet around the 6/4 mark on the exchanges which is the right price compared to how highly we have assessed it, it is the biggest certainty on the card, back it alone with good confidence straight out to win.
Value Place Bet – nothing in this race
Meydan 5.35 1m4f93y G2
No4 Anmar G2+,+?
No5 Halicarnassus G2
No6 Purple Moon G1
No9 Pan River G2?
No16 Autonomy G2+,+?
There is potentially 5 horses that could scoop the prize here, but 3 of them make major appeal. We have leant towards the lightly raced Rahy colt Anmar on top here from the super hot Saeed Bin Suroor yard, admittedly Purple Moon is more proven as a stayer with his efforts over the last 2 years but Anmar has 2 major factors in his favour, he was an impressive last start winner here over 11f giving him the race fitness edge and he has more scope for further improvement being so lightly raced whilst Purple Moon is 1st up from a break obviously using this as a prep run for his major assignment to come on Dubai World Cup night, the other one that makes significant appeal is the well bred Indian Group 1 winner Autonomy who is by Razeen (full brother to Warshaan and the best sire India has ever had winning multiple sire titles over there producing countless numbers of Indian classic winners), Autonomy is out of a high class Indian bred Steinbeck mare, even though Autonomy failed at his 1st start in Dubai when down the track behind Pan River (also engaged here) we feel there is more to come from him.
1st No4 Anmar
2nd No16 Autonomy
3rd No6 Purple Moon
This shapes as a good value betting affair where we can back our top two elects for a result across the race, No4 Anmar looks likely to start favorite here around the 9/2 mark, back it to win, the 2nd elect No16 Autonomy shapes as very good value likely to be bet at 30/1 or better, back it each way outlaying half the amount of the Anmar bet for a result across the race.
Value Place Bet – No16 Autonomy
Meydan 6.10 1m2f G2
No2 Allybar G2+
No5 Gloria De Campeao G1,+?
No8 Vodka G1++?
No11 Cavalryman G1+
No13 Red Desire G1+,+?
Once again another super strong race on this card that will take no less than an effort of the highest Group 1 calibre class to win here, 4 horses make serious appeal in this race and all are proven high class Group 1 performers, we have leant towards the champion Japanese bred Tanimo Gimlet mare Vodka as the top elect here, she got back to her career best form last start winning over 12f at Tokyo annexing the Japan Cup dirt, form refs out of that race suggest it was a group 1 race of the highest quality and clearly puts her on top here. It is another Japanese raider who comes out of that same race that we have down for 2nd in the form of the very well bred Manhattan Cafe 4yo filly Red Desire, she chased home Vodka in the Japan Cup dirt gamely beaten 1.5l 3rd and the start prior she annexed the G1 Shuka Sho over 10f at Kyoto defeating a very high class field full of proven Group 1 winners, the next best is also a high class stayer in the form of the French raider Cavalryman who last start finished 3rd to Sea The Stars in the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe beaten only 2l, the 4yo son of Halling won his previous 3 starts on end and that Arc 3rd was in one of the strongest renew2als of the Arc in a long time.
1st No8 Vodka
2nd No13 Red Desire
3rd No11 Cavalryman
Win Betting – Our confidence is very strong around our top 2 elects here and there is enough value in the market to back both for a result across the race as one of our strongest races to be bet on the card, No8 Vodka is likely to be bet around the 13/4 or 7/2 mark and shapes as good value slightly better odds than we have it assessed at, our 2nd elect No13 Red Desire is also at good value compared to its true chance and is likely to be bet around the 13/2 or 7/1 mark, have 4 units on Vodka and 2 units on Red Desire for a result across the race.
Value Place Betting – nothing in this race
Meydan 6.45 1m1f G2
No1 Presvis G1?
No3 Alexandros G2+?
No5 Lahaleeb G1+,+?
No8 Justenuffhumor G1+?
As per the usual story for this meeting it will take a high class G1 performer to annex this race despite the Group 2 rating assigned on paper to this race, 4 horses in the field make appeal as potential winners here but it is the USA turf form that we feel is the most significant in this race, on top we lean towards the Redback 4yo filly Lahaleeb who last start annexed the EP Taylor Stakes at Woodbine over 10f in very good style 1.7*2.3l with further big margins back through the field, the form out of that race does look strong and it was a career best performance for the unfashionably bred filly so there is a minor query because of those factors, her prior form in The UK was not as strong but that EP Taylor Stakes win has to be respected, for 2nd it is another USA formline we rely on nominating Justenuffhumor for 2nd, last start he was one paced when 4.2l 6th to Bankable having his first start at Meydan on 19 Feb but his effort when 3rd to Goldikova btn 1.5l the start prior in the Breeders Cup Mile on turf is a very strong form line for this, that day he was making strong headway over the final 100y suggesting he is even better suited to this 9f test here, for 3rd the best of the rest clearly looks to be Presvis who will have come on significantly for its last start 7l 2nd to Allybar in a small 3 horse field race here on 5 February, not the strongest confidence about this race but still good value likely.
1st No5 Lahaleeb
2nd No8 Justenuffhumor
3rd No1 Presvis
Win Betting – This race just like the prior race shapes as a good value betting affair where we can back the top 2 elects for a result across the race but not with the same confidence as the prior race, No5 Lahaleeb is likely to be bet around the 11/1 mark or better on the exchanges and can be backed each way as the top elect, our 2nd elect No8 Justenuffhumor is also good value here likely to be bet around the 7/1 to 8/1 mark and can also be backed to win, outlay half the amount on Justenuffhumour compared to the size bet that you have on Lahaleeb to win.
Value Place Betting – No5 Lahaleeb
