By Carl Harris
Its a Super Saturday with the highlight being the Newbury card which is choc full of quality and intrigue. The obvious double today is Denman and Master Minded, you can’t get bigger than those two, possibly only by adding Kauto Star. It promises to be a great day.
The big betting race of the day is The Totesport Trophy which is a competitive betting heat, to say the least and we have another chance to see Diamond Harry over fences before he heads to Cheltenham. I am really looking forward to Saturday at Newbury and also at Warwick.
1:30 Newbury, Diamond Harry- Win. Not much of a price today but I am interested here with Cheltenham in mind. Some say that Diamond Harry was a fortunate winner on his chase debut, but it was not his fault the others all fell with Harry travelling easily. He would have won either way but we didn’t learn much. He faces better horses here, but should still have a stone in hand and if a serious Cheltenham player you would look for him to win on the steel. If the layers take him on, offering backers value, then I for one will be on. You choose what you think value looks like, but I see only one winner here, Diamond Harry.
Alan King takes him on with Bensalem and the trainer writes on his website:
“Bensalem might not have beaten Diamond Harry at Haydock, but he would have been a good second and the longer trip will definitely help our cause. He took a nasty fall at Haydock, but when we gave him his first school he was straight into it, so clearly it had no ill effects.”
Personally I read that as we will have a go, but I don’t expect to beat him. Diamond Harry could be a very high class chaser who should come on from that debut and win here.
Diamond Harry runs again over fences on Saturday
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2:30 Newbury (Aon Chase), Denman- Win. Denman will be very short, he will win and win well. Tony McCoy takes the ride to get to know ‘The Tank’ ahead of partnering him at Cheltenham in The Gold Cup on March 19. He showed in the Hennessey that he is back to his best and at his best he should win this hard held. Its more interesting than a serious betting event, anything but a Denman win would be a disaster. On official ratings he has over 2 stones in hand.
Paul Nicholls told the press; “The form he was in at the Hennessy, we could quite easily have run him fresh (in the Gold Cup) without a run but he’s a little more stuffy than Kauto Star and it just fits in with his preparation.
What the Champion Trainer is eluding to is that this race now shapes up as nothing more than an exercise gallop, which is exactly how much effort it will take to win this readily, giving McCoy a chance to get to know the horse. This is a ‘gimmie’ for connections, as big Ron would say.
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Denman next stop Cheltenham Gold Cup
I will be having a treble on the above two and the dual Champion Chase winner Master Minded, who is back after a break to recover from a stress fracture. He should win the Game Spirit Chase.
3:40 Newbury, Master Minded- Win. There are some who think Master Minded was beaten last time because he is past his best. The simple fact is he was found to have a stress fracture which caused him to run poorly. He is said to have recovered and should run much better. A win here will see him shorten up for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls seems quietly confident ahead of this run, where he meets Voy Por Ustedes. He says;
“I have been very impressed with him since he came back into work, he looks fabulous and when he won the Champion Chase two years ago his run before was in the Game Spirit, so it fits in nicely.”
I have backed Master Minded for the Champion Chase because of the positive noises I heard last week from connections. Closer to the race you tend to find caution kicks in, but I get the feeling that connections fully expect Master Minded to win. I hope I have read that right. He is as good a two miler as I have ever seen and for the last leg of the terrible there are few other horses I would rather rely on than Master Minded. Ruby Walsh rides, no way would he let McCoy take this ride!
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Master Minded on the way to the Champion Chase
The Totesport Trophy..Take 10/1 Get Me Out Of Here
3:05 Newbury, Get Me Out Of Here, Win and Place. I have already put my views forward my views about Get Me Out Of Here for the feature betting handicap of Saturday’s card. You can read those comments in full but regular readers will be in no doubt why this one is being nominated. We were on last time, when I actually said the horse should have a mark of 135, which he now has. He was not tested at all and I think he has plenty of scope and ability. As an each-way proposition at 10/1 I think this is a cracker of a bet. I would be amazed if McCoy was not in the frame at the very least here.
This is one of the best double digit bets I have seen for quite some time.
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Take McCoy on Get Me Out Of Here at 10/1
2:15 Warwick- Long Run- Win. At Warwick we get another look at Nicky Henderson’s Arkle Trophy hopeful, Long Run who should win before going to Cheltenham. At adjusted weights he probably has a stone in hand and therefore is fully expected to win. Again not a great price but this is another race with relevance beyond today. Sam Waley-Cohen is a decent amateur, the owners son, who will be on at Cheltenham. I have no worries about the jockey, certainly not here but if it came to a tight finish up the Cheltenham hill with McCoy, Walsh or Johnson then that may be a different scenario. Long Run for me to win here, readily.
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On the all-weather…
7:20 Wolverhampton, Tiger Hawk- Win. He must be the bet of the day on the level. A good winner on Thursday this is such a poor race that he surely must win. If we have had a good day over jumps a sneaky bet on this one should pay for the Valentines card at the very least!
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Free Horseracing Tips, from Carl Harris for Saturday 13 Feb:
A Treble
- 1:30 Newbury, Diamond Harry- Win
- 2:30 Newbury (Aon Chase), Denman- Win
- 3:40 Newbury, Master Minded- Win
Each Way
- 3:05 Newbury, Get Me Out Of Here, Win and Place.
Others
- 2:15 Warwick- Long Run- Win
- 7:20 Wolverhampton, Tiger Hawk- Win
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