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Friday January 29, 2010 4:26 Lee Keys
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Friday January 29, 2010 1:04 Lee Keys
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Friday January 29, 2010 11:06 Lee Keys
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11:02
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Friday January 29, 2010 11:02 Racing Diary (Carl)
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Friday January 29, 2010 10:18
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10:18
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Friday January 29, 2010 10:18 Racing Diary (Carl)
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10:17
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Friday January 29, 2010 10:17 Racing Diary (Carl)
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Re: Trading Diary Busy Day
Stakes (1-3 pts)
Todays Live Trading Advice Schedule
Lingfield: 1:05 1:40 4:00 4:30
Doncaster: 1:20 3:05
Today’s Outright Bets Summary
4.00 Lingfield – 1pt win ANNE OF KIEV @ 7/2, 1pt win EVEN BOLDER @ 9/1, 1pt win GARSTANG @ 9/1 (like having 3pts @ 11/8)
4.00 MARRIOTT HOTEL OPENING SPRING 2010 HANDICAP (4) (AWT) 5f
The pace shape is vital for 90 – 95% of handicaps and here it will simply be a war of attrition up front with no less than FOUR confirmed front runners with arguably INCOMPARABLE likely to be up there early as well. This should play right into the hands of the three horses who will have the race run to produce their very best form.
It may seem alien to some by backing three horses in one race but why not? If we have an edge over the market because we have worked out the pace scenario then there is no problem. By Backing ANNE OF KIEV @ 7/2, EVEN BOLDER and GARSTANG @ 9/1 a piece we are in effect backing an 11/8 chance as that is what backing all three together works out at. You may want to consider changing the bet so you do win the same amount whetever wins the race but for account purposes I will keep the stakes at 1pt per horse, keeping it simple.
The dutch stakes will be £52.63 @ 7/2 ANNA OF KIEV and £23.68 each on the other two at 9/1 each. That’s £100 staked and £236.84 returns if any one of the three selections is successful.
ANNE OF KIEV looks like a mare to follow since arriving at Jeremy Gask from John Gosden, she was a quirky filly for her former trainer but hasn’t shown that for her new trainer, who is adept at training highly strung horses like her. SHe won well off a strong pace at Wolverhampton last time and has the same scenario again, a three pounds penalty shouldn’t stop her from moving forward. GARSTANG loves it around here he’s a four time course winner and off a mark of 75 with a perfect pace set up (will track the pace) should be going close here. The same can be said for EVEN BOLDER, who can often find less than expected but is well handicapped on his best form and his return from a six week break last time should have blown ut the cobwebs.
I think at 11/8 the trio we’ve got a terrific bet given that there is a very high chance that the pace will collapse on the front end.
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