Friday- RACING DIARY LIVE, 29 January

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  Friday Racing Diary Live (01/29/2010) 
5:46
 

 

4:33
Lee Keys: 

Back tomorrow

Friday January 29, 2010 4:33 Lee Keys
4:26
Lee Keys: 

4.30 Lingfield Absolutely no pace in this race and you should be looking to support anything on the front end. I tend to like backing the first two or three on the front end because the gallop should be sedate here.

Friday January 29, 2010 4:26 Lee Keys
4:06
Lee Keys: 

Back for the 4.30 at Leafy Lingers

Friday January 29, 2010 4:06 Lee Keys
4:05
Lee Keys: 

didnt think the race went exactly to plan but we’ve still copped the money, didnt think they went that fast.

Friday January 29, 2010 4:05 Lee Keys
3:55
Lee Keys: 

4.00 Lingfield – We’ve lost a front runner in WOTASHIRTFULL but I’ve had another 400/300 about the trio ANNA OF KIEV, GARSTANG and EVEN BOLDER winning the race given the strong pace going to be set here by Master Lightfoot, Billy Red an Incomparable. GARSTANG will have first run at the leaders with ANNE OF KIEV and EVEN BOLDER closing fast late. I expect the pace to collapse but feel free in running to watch and make a decision.

Friday January 29, 2010 3:55 Lee Keys
3:11
Lee Keys: 

Been a quiet day so far but back for the best race of the day the 4.00 at Lingfield.

Friday January 29, 2010 3:11 Lee Keys
3:08
Lee Keys: 

shame really because I really liked this, could still win but I’m happy to leave it but disappointed because I wanted to go in hard

Friday January 29, 2010 3:08 Lee Keys
3:06
Lee Keys: 

I have decided not to play here the horse hasnt settled well enough

Friday January 29, 2010 3:06 Lee Keys
2:54
Lee Keys: 

I will be having a big bet at even a bit less than Betfair SP in play. A maximum bet for me if he settles and is ridden correctly

Friday January 29, 2010 2:54 Lee Keys
2:53
Lee Keys: 

3.05 Doncaster – BARWELL BRIDGE looks a certainty if settling and ridden handy by Timmy Murphy. Should be different class to these just ran too free last time in better company.

Friday January 29, 2010 2:53 Lee Keys
2:37
Lee Keys: 

pace bias at Doncaster, nothing should be bet held up off the pace

Friday January 29, 2010 2:37 Lee Keys
1:44
Lee Keys: 

Back for the 3.05 Doncaster

Friday January 29, 2010 1:44 Lee Keys
1:43
Lee Keys: 

absolutely crazy to offer 100 in running there, lone pace and is very tough on the front end.

Friday January 29, 2010 1:43 Lee Keys
1:40
Lee Keys: 

Easy half point there

Friday January 29, 2010 1:40 Lee Keys
1:27
Lee Keys: 

1.40 Lingfield THUNDERSTRUCK easy back to lay. Lone front runner and will trade half a point shorter by early in the back straight, the key here is not to be too greedy

Friday January 29, 2010 1:27 Lee Keys
1:21
Lee Keys: 

pulled way too hard cant win today

Friday January 29, 2010 1:21 Lee Keys
1:17
Lee Keys: 

1.20 Doncaster – If OVERTURN settles here will be an easy back to lay. Keep your eye on him to make sure he settles at least a point profit here if he does.

Friday January 29, 2010 1:17 Lee Keys
1:08
Lee Keys: 

clearly no world beater, had the run of the race there, clearly one to be against next time also.

Friday January 29, 2010 1:08 Lee Keys
1:04
Lee Keys: 

1.05 Lingfield – BEYOND looked pony size in the paddock at Wolves and although this looks a very bad race I don’t think he has a deal of scope. People are looking at the GREFRIARSCHORISTA form and thinking that on that footing he looks a shoe in. However for a horse making its debut late in the year at wolverhampton tells me this is no world beater and I’m a layer at 1.67

Friday January 29, 2010 1:04 Lee Keys
11:06
Lee Keys: 

Todays Live Trading Advice Schedule

Lingfield: 1:05 1:40 4:00 4:30

Doncaster: 1:20 3:05

Today’s Outright Bets Summary

4.00 Lingfield – 1pt win ANNE OF KIEV @ 7/2, 1pt win EVEN BOLDER @ 9/1, 1pt win GARSTANG @ 9/1 (like having 3pts @ 11/8)

Friday January 29, 2010 11:06 Lee Keys
11:02
Racing Diary (Carl): 

Join Lee Keys for Racing Live and Check Out teh Excellent Daily betting Briefing below….

Friday January 29, 2010 11:02 Racing Diary (Carl)
10:18
Friday January 29, 2010 10:18 
10:18
Racing Diary (Carl): 

Make sure you have your Betfair Account Open,…

Friday January 29, 2010 10:18 Racing Diary (Carl)
10:17
Racing Diary (Carl): 

Join Racing Diary LIVE from the start of racing!

Friday January 29, 2010 10:17 Racing Diary (Carl)
 
 


Re: Trading Diary Busy Day

Stakes (1-3 pts)

Todays Live Trading Advice Schedule

Lingfield: 1:05 1:40 4:00 4:30

Doncaster: 1:20 3:05

Today’s Outright Bets Summary

4.00 Lingfield – 1pt win ANNE OF KIEV @ 7/2, 1pt win EVEN BOLDER @ 9/1, 1pt win GARSTANG @ 9/1 (like having 3pts @ 11/8)

4.00 MARRIOTT HOTEL OPENING SPRING 2010 HANDICAP (4) (AWT) 5f

The pace shape is vital for 90 – 95% of handicaps and here it will simply be a war of attrition up front with no less than FOUR confirmed front runners with arguably INCOMPARABLE likely to be up there early as well. This should play right into the hands of the three horses who will have the race run to produce their very best form.

It may seem alien to some by backing three horses in one race but why not? If we have an edge over the market because we have worked out the pace scenario then there is no problem. By Backing ANNE OF KIEV @ 7/2, EVEN BOLDER and GARSTANG @ 9/1 a piece we are in effect backing an 11/8 chance as that is what backing all three together works out at. You may want to consider changing the bet so you do win the same amount whetever wins the race but for account purposes I will keep the stakes at 1pt per horse, keeping it simple.

The dutch stakes will be £52.63 @ 7/2 ANNA OF KIEV and £23.68 each on the other two at 9/1 each. That’s £100 staked and £236.84 returns if any one of the three selections is successful.

ANNE OF KIEV looks like a mare to follow since arriving at Jeremy Gask from John Gosden, she was a quirky filly for her former trainer but hasn’t shown that for her new trainer, who is adept at training highly strung horses like her. SHe won well off a strong pace at Wolverhampton last time and has the same scenario again, a three pounds penalty shouldn’t stop her from moving forward. GARSTANG loves it around here he’s a four time course winner and off a mark of 75 with a perfect pace set up (will track the pace) should be going close here. The same can be said for EVEN BOLDER, who can often find less than expected but is well handicapped on his best form and his return from a six week break last time should have blown ut the cobwebs.

I think at 11/8 the trio we’ve got a terrific bet given that there is a very high chance that the pace will collapse on the front end.

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