Betting Briefing, LIVE, Tuesday 26 January

Trading Diary Busy Day

LIVE Trading with Lee Keys

(01/24/2010)

  

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9:55

2:44	Racing Diary (Carl):  Cheers Lee. A traders nightmare, it could actually cost us a packet. I think its the best idea! I am also off to the pub, sorry gym! Monday January 25, 2010 2:44 Racing Diary (Carl)

2:42	Lee Keys:  Betfair has gone down again, I am abandoning trading today. Back tomorrow Monday January 25, 2010 2:42 Lee Keys

2:33	Lee Keys:  nice trade on BLACKS BRIDGE there some very generous prices in running, was a bit keen but thats his style. BAck for 2.45 Monday January 25, 2010 2:33 Lee Keys

2:23	Lee Keys:  BLACKS BRIDGE here excellent back to lay should easily come down a point at the least Monday January 25, 2010 2:23 Lee Keys

2:09	Lee Keys:  Near The Water promises to be suited by this trip and would be my idea of the winner, he’s going the right way Monday January 25, 2010 2:09 Lee Keys

2:07	Lee Keys:  2.10 Fontwell – If the market goes in play put up a lay for Shali San at around 3.0 there are some prgressve types in here and she is a serial non finder. Monday January 25, 2010 2:07 Lee Keys

1:56	Racing Diary (Carl):  Betfair has gone down again Monday January 25, 2010 1:56 Racing Diary (Carl)

1:51	Lee Keys:  Dont play in running here Betfair didn’t suspend the market Monday January 25, 2010 1:51 Lee Keys

1:50	Lee Keys:  Will be back for the next at Fontwell, Betfair seems to have come back Monday January 25, 2010 1:50 Lee Keys

1:47	Racing Diary (Carl):  Will advise when betfair returns. Ironically Premium Charge has just got turned over at Wolverhampton! Monday January 25, 2010 1:47 Racing Diary (Carl)

1:31	Racing Diary (Carl):  Please note Betfair is currently down. Monday January 25, 2010 1:31 Racing Diary (Carl)

1:26	Lee Keys:  1.35 Fontwell – CHARIOT CHARGER will beat these if jumping and settling better than he did last time. THE NIGHTINGALE wouldnt interest me at a short price, SON OF FLICKA makes appeal as a quick back to lay because he will make the pace Monday January 25, 2010 1:26 Lee Keys

1:06	Lee Keys:  1.15 Newcastle – I will be looking to back BOCAMIX at odds against in play as the strong travelling STORMY WEATHER should have the favourite off the bridle at some point. STOrMY WEATHER finds nthing for pressure and doesnt look genuine for me Monday January 25, 2010 1:06 Lee Keys

1:04

Lee Keys:  1.05 Fontwell – Expect TRICKY TrICKSTER to make the running and simply outstay the second favourite. Nothing of significance we can get involved with here, maybe if you fancy a couple of ticks in a back to lay of the favourite given he will make the running Monday January 25, 2010 1:04 Lee Keys

1:03	Lee Keys:  Todays Live Trading Advice Schedule Fontwell: All races Newcastle: All races Monday January 25, 2010 1:03 Lee Keys

9:03	Racing Diary (Carl):  MONDAY Live trading with start 15 minutes before the first race. Join Us then Sunday January 24, 2010 9:03 Racing Diary (Carl)

 

 

Stakes (1-3 pts)

Todays Live Trading Advice Schedule

Leicester: 1:40 2:10 2:40

Sedgefield: 1:30 3:00 3:30 4:00

Southwell: 1:20 2:20 3:50 4:20

Today’s Outright Bets Summary

• 1.40 Leicester 1pt e/w Misstree Dancer
• 2.10 Leicester 1pt e/w Bobby Bullock @ 9/1 general 4.20 Southwell 2pts win Wedding Dream @ 9/4 general

1.40 CROXTON PARK NOVICES’ HURDLE (4) 2½m110y

I think we have a live chance of getting the mare QUEEN POLINE turned over here. On the book she deserves her place as favourite given that she defeated SILVER KATE (since run 3rd in a Grade Two Mares at Ascot) at Warwick. The run of Silver KAte on Saturday has made her a lot shorter than she should be today and I feel she was flattered to beat Silver KAte that day. SHe was in receipt of a stone from Silver Kate that day and had the run of the race racing prominently throughout. Prior to that her form would have barely made her favourite that day and I believe it was SILVER KATES big weight that stopped her from winning that day.

So with that in mind I want to take her on with MISSTREE DANCER who has caught my eye twice now with quiet rides from the back without being seriously knocked about. Maybe she has to be ridden that way but on both occasions she has been bang last and has quickened up well to be placed both times, never nearer. I particularly like the form of last time out because I think it is solid for the level and I think this mare getting seven pounds from QUEEN POLINE has better claims than her tissue price of between 5/1 and 6/1. Can’t see her out of the frame.

2.10 BROOK CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP CHASE (5) 2½m110y

A really nice bet here in the Michael Scudamore trained BOBBY BULLOCK, who was cantering over better competition than this at Newbury before his stamina and handicap mark told when dropping away four out. What price would FISTRAL BEACH be in this race from a thirteen pounds lower mark? Well four out BOBBY BULLOCK was travelling just about as well as that horse and has been dropped a whopping thirteen pounds in the handicap for this race. Added to that he is dropped half a mile in trip and providing everything clicks with him (hasn’t been consistent with his jumping) then this big strapping gelding is sure to take all the beating here. At around the 9 or 10/1 mark he rates very good value for money as really on the book if you watch the video of the last race he should be priced up as market leader or near enough.

4.20 MORE JUMP RACING AT SOUTHWELL IN 2010 HANDICAP (6) (AWT) 1m

Money for the now gelded TEMPLE FAIR trained by MArk Johnston, who has to be respected from a mark of 57. He s by TIGER HILL so he could be a late developer and improve for this slower surface but to things concern me. He really did look devid of ability on all three of his starts and the gelded arguement doesn’t wash with me. There seemed to be nothing wrong with his attitude or effort he just looked very ordinary.

But for the Johnston factor the Kevin Ryan trained filly WEDDING DREAM would be a maximum bet. Yes she is up 13lbs for winning six wickets last time but the penny has finally dropped with her. She is a tail swisher when smacked but that doesn’t stop her running forward powerfully and the step up in trip to a mile was the making of her last time. I think there is plenty more to come from her and unless the Johnston horse has improved significantly from what I’ve seen we’ll be collecting today on this filly, she looks better than a 58 horse and the time last time backs that up.