With 8 meetings on around the country on Tuesday there is plenty of great betting action to be had in Australia on our national holiday for Australia Day. Follow all the action from Australia’s best tipster, Nathan Lynch with the best betting action at www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au. The link below will give you access to all the betting action for win, place lay and exotic betting across the day from all venues and further below we detail some of the better bets of the day.
LIVE BETTING LINK – http://www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au/livebetting26012010bvsxdyuipl.html
Aussie Tips...by Nathan Lynch
Sale R2 No4 Capturethedream (1) – well bred lightly raced improver by Lonhro out of the city winning sprint mare by El Moxie, Mimzical, well placed here having 2nd career start resuming from a spell in overly weak $12K maiden company, on debut finished 2.6l 5th at Geelong over 1130m on slow going when sat wide without cover, had the toughest trip and still battled on well doing its best work close home that day, 4 subsequent winners have since come out of that race suggesting it was a strong maiden for the tag, likely to have improved significantly since spelling and gets the benefit of a firmer surface here and likely better trip in transit, with that scope taken into account becomes the one to beat in this weak maiden, came close to giving this a level (2) rating so confidence is good for the level (1) rating assigned, anything better than 7/4 or 2.80 is good value.
Wagga R1 No14 Sydney’s Ransom (3) – very hard to go past the chances of the well bred type Sydney’s Ransom here who is by Red Ransom out of the stakes performed Quest For Fame mare Sydney’s Quest who herself is a half sister to hot young sire and 4 time Group winner Charge Forward including the G1 Galaxy, her dam is none other than South African Group 1 winner by Bletchingly of the South African Fillies Futurity Stakes, Sydney’s Dream, comes into this 4th run back from a spell at peak fitness now dropping sharply in class from last start finishing 3.5l 6th at Randwick in maiden company for a $27k purse, 2nd up start prior finished 0.2l 2nd at Wyong over 1350m against clearly stronger than it takes on here and 3rd up over this distance last preparation was only btn 2l by Onemorenomore in the Listed Baillieu Handicap, the only very minor query looks to be Vespasian on exposed class but this one gets a gun trip from the 5 alley tracking no more than an even speed with one of the runs of the race, simply ticks too many boxes, anything better than 5/4 or 2.20 represents good value.
Wagga R2 No6 Cockels’n'mussels (2) – overly well bred lightly raced improver by Street Cry out of the Twig Moss mare Marie Narelle, comes into this having mere 2nd career start on the back of finishing 1.3l 2nd to Forethought over 1200m at Canberra, was slowly away that day and got caught 3 wide tracking a fastish tempo with no cover, did the most work of the on pacers and big merit associated to the run considering 1st 3rd 4th and 5th home all came from off the pace, also put a good gap on 2.3l back to 3rd in the 14 horse field, another sign of good merit, 4th and 6th home both came out and won at their next start for the same $9K tag this one takes on here adding further merit to the debut effort especially considering it beat 6th home, Little Isabel by 4.4l and it was the best finished of the other on pacers and it defeated Itahi at Queanbeyan next start by 1.5l and Itahi had placed 2nd in $9K maidens both starts prior confirming the form line, prior to that debut effort Cockels’n'mussels won a trial at Canberra over 900m by 2l defeating that same horse Little Isabel 2nd by 2l with a further 3.5l back to 3rd, form reference once again franked, this one is clearly above the level required to win here, no major concern about the 11 alley as there is not as much pace engaged here, likely to cross and get a soft on pace trip, the only real query comes from Final Star who is 4th emergency and may not get a start, if Final Star does not get a start this one increases from its current level (2) rating to a level (3) rating anything better than 7/4 is good value, with Final Star scratched 11/8 becomes an acceptable price.
Caulfield R5 No8 Most Immediate (1) – with Denman being so short in the market in early fixed odds betting we feel there is merit in opposing it and finding a way to get it beat and 2 horses fit the bill at decent double each way odds with this being the first of them, Most Immediate is a well bred type by Red Ransom out of the 4 times stakes winning Jade Hunter mare So Keen, her stakes wins came at 1200m-1400m including the G2 Surround Stakes, so far at stud she has produced one other stakes winner being the dual G1 winner Keeninsky, comes into this 2nd up from a spell on the back of breaking maiden status last start at Moonee Valley over 1200m in $70K R0MW company defeating At The Heads who franked that form winning for a $70K tag on Saturday at Sandown, the start prior At The Heads was beaten only 0.8l by 2 from 2 winner and the other seen chance of beating Denman here in the form of The Handsome One, at the weights through At The Heads Most Immediate has a 2kg pull on The Handsome One and more scope for improvement being 2nd up and The Handsome One only rates 2.5kg below Denman at the weights as noted below, with this one being 9/00 or 8/1 compared to Denman 1.80 or 5/4 on there is enough merit to suggest backing this one to beat Denman.
Caulfield R5 No5 The Handsome One (1) – well bred lightly raced improver with good scope for more by Shamardal out of the Dehere mare Dehere And Now, comes into this having mere 3rd career start on the back of winning two on end including last start over this track and distance on Boxing day, a form line can be taken through Mo Money who finished 4th to it that day rating 2kg below it back to Denman when Denman defeated Mo Money when it was 1st up from a spell last preperation over 1100m at Flemington, Denman beat Mo Money that day by 3.2l rating 7kg infront of it, that puts Denman a raw 5kg infront of The Handsome One but Denman gives The Handsome One 2.5kg at the weights here which puts Denman in this rated only 2.5kg infront of The Handsome One, The Handsome One has the fitness edge over Denman who is 1st up being aimed at longer trips up to a mile and The Handsome One also has more scope for improvement only having faced the starter twice, this creates enough queries to suggest at the weights that The Handsome One is worth backing to beat Denman considering the big difference in prices with Denman quoted at 1.80 or 5/4 in early fixed odds markets whilst The Handsome One is available at 12/1 or 13.00, in some markets even longer.
Caulfield R6 No2 Zarita (1) – outside of a few horses the overall depth of this field is Listed quality at best but in the case of Zarita she has class on her side, 1st up 2 preperations ago she was only beaten 3.1l by Maldivian over 1400m at Group 1 level in the CF Orr Stakes, she franked that fresh form when last preperation 2nd up finishing 1.4l 3rd to Mic Mac in the G2 Memsie Stakes, the overall depth of the field she faced at those 2 starts far outweighs what she takes on here, on another line pose this question, if Mic Mac was engaged here with 61.5kg what price would he be?, surely a lot shorter than the 11.00 or 10/1 being offered about Zarita.
Caulfield R6 No6 Divine Rebel (1) – admittedly Divine Rebel failed 1st up over 1200m as expected in the Cleary Stakes behind Beltrois, 2nd up here against average Listed foes she deserves respect but stretching out to 1400m, we take a line through here 3rd up run last preperation when she flashed big closing pars to finish 2nd to Fifth Avenue Lady over 1600m in the G3 Patinack Farm Stakes, the form coming out of that race has subsequently proven very strong with no less than 6 of those beaten further back winning at their next start and another 2 of them winning at their 2nd start afterwards, as a minimum when on song this 5yo mare by Don Eduardo is a Group 3 quality performer, despite the 1400m being a bit short for her she is proven in strong G3 company over 1600m and gets in well weighted here on that basis, if she can turn around her 1st up failure she may surprise here at a massive price, 50/1 in early fixed odds markets is just simply huge overs and must be nibbled at.
