As the UK freezes, we have some action from down under. Aussie Pro Punter Nathan Lynch previews the Gold Coast Magic Millions.
Gold Coast R7 – 1200m Magic Millions 2yo Classic $2,000,000
The $2M Magic Millions 2yo Classic is run at The Gold Coast on Saturday 9 January and shapes as a very good value betting affair, read our detailed betting preview below.
Initially we start by listing our top 7 rated runners in order, THIS IS NOT THE PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER, read on further below for final predicted finishing order.
Top 7 Rated in order
1st No13 Ambers Waltz
2nd No1 Brightexpectations
3rd No8 Ebony Rock
=4th No7 Startsmeup, No11 Triple Crown, No14 Red Belly Black
7th No9 Military Rose
Pace = Solid
Ambers Waltz – the clear top rated 0.7l infront of Bright Expectations but likely to get caught deep facing the breeze tracking the speed if it goes forward as it did on debut but more likely to go back from the wide gate and be ridden for luck, barrier a major concern and as favorite there is enough value around the other top raters to find something to beat it due to the bad barrier, too short at 4.20 in early betting to have it on top as the major pick due to the alley.
Brightexpectations – clear 2nd top rated coming in rating 1.3l infront of the 3rd rated horse Ebony Rock, also drawn a very wide gate but is a speed horse and will go forward, the pace is likely to be solid so it will need to have luck crossing them early but if it gets across and finds cover stalking the leaders it shapes as the one they have to run down in deep stretch, booking of top hoop Nash Rawiller adds confidence, well bred by More Than Ready who knows how to produce a MM winner and top class juvenile as he has proven the last few years, at the prepost price of 14.00 on offer it is definitely a bettable commodity.
Ebony Rock – one of two very serious chances for the Hayes yard along with Red Belly Black, drawn superbly down in the 2 alley to get a gun trip back off the pace on the rail and is suited by the solid tempo, it will be closing hard at the business end and only rates 2kg below Brightexpectations so if Brightexpectations doesn’t get cover from the wide alley there is every chance this one could get home over the top of it and at 26.00 in early markets is worth backing as well.
Red Belly Black – the other Hayes runner and is only having 2nd start here, has big scope for further improvement on debut run, only won debut effort at Flemington by tight margins but came from last over 1100m to wear down the 3 on pace horses who finished 2nd 3rd and 4th, very good merit, form ref through I’m Posh who finished 5th puts it infront of Ebony Rock on one form reference, drawn a good gate to get also a very good trip from off the pace, once again at a good double figure price of 17.00 in early betting so it too can be backed to win along with Brightexpectations and Ebony Rock for a result across the race, looks to have the best chance of the equal 4th rated runners noted above.
PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER
1st. Brightexpectations
2nd. Ebony Rock
3rd. Red Belly Black
4th. Ambers Waltz
WIN BETTING:
3 units Brightexpectations @ 14.00,
2 units Ebony Rock @ 26.00,
2 units Red Belly Black @ 17.00,
total outlay 7 units,
minimum return 34 units,
maximum return 52 units.
PLACE BETTING:
5 units Ebony Rock @ 7.20
LAY BETTING:
Best Lay is Spirit Of Boom (max lay price 11.00),
additional lay is Military Rose (max lay pricve 8.00),
both can be laid under their max lay prices with good confidence.
EXOTIC BETTING
Quinella – 1,8,14
Trifecta – 1st 1,8,14 / 2nd & 3rd 1,7,8,11,13,14
Good luck and happy punting.
Gold Coast R1 – 1200m Magic Millions Maiden Plate $100,000
Top 5 Rated in order
1st No13 Speeding To Win
2nd No2 Mailbox
3rd No21 Fatherson (5th Emerg), unlikely to start
4th No12 Solid Effort
5th No5 Fast Lover
Pace = Average
Speeding To Win – very well bred type by Redoutes Choice who comes into this 4th up from a spell at peak fitness and likely to get a near perfect trip from a good gate on the front end under an even tempo, both jockey (Nash Rawiller) and trainer (Johhn O’Shea) are in hot form currently, on debut last prep finished 0.2l 2nd to Winter King over 1000m at Randwick on heavy going, form refgs out of that race put it on top here including line through Deer Valley who last start raced against the fixed odds favorite here Fast LOver since shipping to Qld giving Speeding To Win a clear 4kg advantage at the weights on that exposed form ref through Deer Valley, ticks clearly the most boxes out of this lot and at 4.60 fixed odds is good value, anything above 3.50 is an acceptable price.
Mailbox – another very well bred commodity by Encosta De Lago out of the Danehill mare Email Me who herself won 2 from 10 starts, 3rd dam is non other than Biscalowe who is the dam of Golden Slipper winner Marauding and the dual Danehill listed winner Springsteen, positive nicking reference for dam Email Me, 1st up from a spell here on the back of a very good trial effort when 2nd btn 1.3l by Electric Dreams at Warwick Farm, form refs through those finishing further back suggest it is ready to hit a new career peak here, if so is in this up to its ears, blinkers come off 1st time amongst a multitude of other gear changes, minor query under the pace scenario as it is likely to go back to worse than midfield in a race where on pacers will have the advantage and is drawn slightly wide out in the 11 alley but has the potential class to overcome that factor, if Speeding To Win fails to fire this may be the one that gets the chocolates at a decent price 12.00 currently on offer fixed odds, back this aswell as Speeding To Win for a result across the race, they look to have it between them.
Fatherson – Hayes runner having 3rd career start and wears blinkers 1st time but unlikely to get a start being the 5th emergency in this field, only rates 1.5kg below Speeding To Win (form line through Streetcar Magic back to Canali back to Speeding To Win) and is drawn a very good alley to get a good on pace trip stalking the leaders, if it gets a start will shake the hell out of this at a massive price and must be backed, 19.00 fixed odds currently but likely to start longer, it will replace Mailbox as the 2nd elect if it gets a start but that is very unlikely.
PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER
1st Speeding To Win
2nd Mailbox
3rd Solid Effort
4th Fast Lover
Special note for Fatherson, goes into 2nd position if it gets a start.
WIN BETTING:
5 units Speeding To Win @ 4.60
2 units Mailbox @ 12.00
total outlay 7 units
minimum return 23 units
maximum return 24 units
PLACE BETTING:
4 units Mailbox @ 3.75
LAY BETTING:
No lay betting on this race
EXOTIC BETTING
Quinella – 13 with 2,12
Good luck and happy punting.
