Nathan Lynch, who gave you Shocking to win the Melbourne Cup looks at Fridays Breeders Cup at Santa Anita. Here are the best bets for Friday at Santa Anita, straight from the Horses Mouth.
Friday Breeders Cup- 6 November- Live on ATR and RUK
Santa Anita (Oak Tree) [Breeders Cup Marathon, 3yo+, 1m6f, $500K Purse]
R3 No6 Mastery (2) – hard to go past the chances of the prepost favorite from the very hot Godolphin yard here, last start scored over 15f at Doncaster 0.7*1.8l annexing the G1 St Leger Stakes, looks a strong form reference for what it takes on here with 2nd home Kite Wood winning its 2 previous starts by good decisive margins in Group 3 company and 3rd home Monitor Closely scoring a 4.5l G2 win the start prior, drops back to 14f here and on the back of being strong over 15f last time out will have no problems with the trip, also won the Italian Derby in fine style at G2 level in a field of 21 horses by 1.5l 4 starts prior, overall this race is not of true G1 calibre but this lightly raced stayer has shown the form to suggest it is at that level, bred to stay the trip by Sulamani out of the Diesis mare Moyesii who is also the dam of KIrklees a dual Group winner this season and an 8f G1 winner at 2, currently being bet at 15/8 with bookmakers and 3.20 to 3.30 on exchanges which is about the price required to make it a decent value bet.
Mastery: St Leger
Mastery: Italian Derby
Santa Anita (Oak Tree) [Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, 2yof, 1m, $1000K Purse] 
R4 No11 Junia Tepzia (1) – open affair with 5 seen chances, decided to lean towards the well bred turf horse Junia Tepzia who has done all of its racing in Italy at San Siro and Merano, in short career has recorded 2 wins from 2 starts including last start at Listed level over 8f in the Premio Coolmore stakes scoring by 3.3l with further big margins back through the field, settled on pace tracking the clear leader before quickly putting the issue beyond doubt showing a sharp turn of foot 1f out and was eased close home, could have won by further, form refs back through the beaten brigade suggest the win was well above the advertised class, subsequently snapped up by astute connections (Team Valor), was only a 3000GNS Tattersals purchase as a yearling in 2008 but is well bred by Rock Of Gibraltar out of a half sister to Footstepsinthesand (leading successful young sire in Europe by Giant’s Causeway who was undefeated in 3 career starts including the 2000 Guineas), drawn a wide gate but the pace scenario suggests it should be able to cross and race on pace without working too hard early with good natural early speed, big scope for further improvement, looks G1 quality on the make, booking of Kieren Fallon adds confidence, other major hopes revolve around Lillie Langtry and Rose Catherine who was super impressive breaking its maiden by 8l at Belmont 1st up last start making all under a solid tempo but was slightly weak on the line suggesting it may struggle to get the 8f here, Junia Tepzia ticks the most boxes and at 10/1 with bookmakers and 14.00 or better on the exchanges currently represents the value option, anything better than 5/1 or 6.00 is good value so this means simply it is big overs and can not be ignored in betting.
Santa Anita (Oak Tree) [Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, 2yof, 1m110y, $2000K Purse]
R5 No6 Connie And Michael (1) – shapes as a race of three major chances and enough depth in the market to back two of them for a result across the race, leant towards this lightly raced improver slightly on top, comes into this having 2nd career start on the back of breaking maiden status by a widening 7.7l over 7f at Keeneland, made all on the front end straightening into the stretch run 3l clear and extended willingly to the wire, hit the line very strongly suggesting the step up in trip suits, pace scenario suits again here with only 1 other seen leader engaged, scope for big improvement coming into this having only 2nd career start, the one they have to run down in deep stretch, very well bred by hot young sire Roman Ruler out of a Devil’s Bag mare., currently available at 6/1 with bookmakers and better than 8.00 on exchanges, anything better than 9/2 is good value.
Connie And Michael winning on debut at Keeneland 17 Oct 09…..
R5 No7 Devil May Care (1) – comes into this undefeated winning 2 from 2 for the very astute Todd Pletcher yard, broke maiden impressively on debut by 4.7l at Saratoga over 6f on sloppy going showing a sharp turn of foot quickly putting the issue beyond doubt upon straightening, 2nd came out and won next start franking the form, this one also then came out and won next start in the G1 Frizette by 0.1l with defeating Awesome Maria putting 4.5l*12.5l back to 3rd and 4th in a totally dominant performance, form refs back through the btn brigade suggest merit associated was of true G1 quality and also suggests it has the edge over the market leaders on exposed form, very well bred by Malibu Moon out of a Red Ransom mare making it a half relation to the high class dual G2 winner Regal Ransom who won the UAE Derby in March 09 over Desert Party, likely for a near perfect trip tracking leaders with one of the runs of the race, will be closing hard with big pars in deep stretch, currently available at 7/1 with bookmakers and around 9.00 on exchanges, anything better than 11/2 is good value.
Devil May Care winning the G1 Frizette at Belmont 10 Oct 09…….
Santa Anita (Oak Tree) [Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly & Mare Turf, 3yo+f&m, 1m2f, $2000K Purse]
R6 No6 Midday (3) – very hard to dismiss the chances of the European charge Midday here, comes into this on the back of finishing 1.5l 3rd to Shalanaya over 10f at Longchamp in the G1 Prix De L’Opera, hit the front 1f out that day then died on her run when fitness got the better of it, clearly finished best of the on pacers in a run full of good hidden merit considering it was coming off a 2 month break into the race, prior to that won the G1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood over 10f on soft going by 2.2l over Rainbow View who was only btn 1.2l by Goldikova the start prior (providing a good form ref to what is required to win this race) and then the start after was a 2l winner in the G1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown over Heaven Sent with a further 4l margin back to Again in 3rd once again providing a strong form ref back to Midday for this assignment, fitter now and likely to get a perfect trip on pace under a slow tempo Midday will prove very hard to run down in deep stretch here, very well bred by Oasis Dream out of the Kingmambo mare Midsummer who was a stakes winner herself from only 3 career starts and is a half sister to high class 10f-12f performer Elmaamul and Reams Of Verse (both dual G1 winners) along with 4 other lesser credentialed stakes performers, the only minor query comes from Pure Clan who was impressive last start scoring by 2.7l in the G1 Flower Bowl Invitational but that was on a soft rain effected track and it got a perfect trip tracking leaders that day and was accordingly fluked and flattered by the pace scenario, Midday very hard to beat here and anything better than 6/4 or 2.50 represents good value, currently being quoted at 11/4 with bookmakers and may touch slightly better odds on exchanges, either way very good value.
