The Melbourne Cup- From The Horses Mouth

Nathan Lynch previews The Melbourne Cup from down under. Nathan Lynch is a professional punter and runs Aussie website- From The Horses Mouth.

Melbourne Cup Preview

The 2009 edition of The Melbourne Cup on paper shapes as one of the weakest version of recent times in terms of overall quality. Below we highlight the top 8 chances in the race and all the best betting advice for win betting, place betting, lay betting and exotic betting.

2009 Melbourne Cup (3200m G1 Hcp $5.5M purse) – The Contenders

No21 Shocking (G1+) – winner 2 from 2 on this track and came of age on Saturday winning the Lexus Stakes over 2500m at Flemington by 2.3l over Hume with a further 3l back to 3rd in a 15 horse field, totally dominant effort and a top class Melbourne Cup trial, got shuffled back rounding the bend then sprinted very quickly to put paid to its foes in a twinkling making very strong headway on the rail, eased close home but hit the line very strongly suggesting the step to 3200m will totally suit, prior to that was beaten twice by Alcopop but form refs out of the Lexus win suggests Shocking has improved markedly since then, those 2 prominent form refs come through Dandaad 10th behind Shocking and Hoorang 13th behind Shocking, both form refs give Shocking a 1.5-3.5kg pull at the weights over Alcopop on those form lines, Sterling Prince back in 5th behind Shocking also gives a good form ref to other major hopes Daffodil and Viewed suggesting Shocking also has those 2 easily covered at the weights, racing on the Saturday prior to the Melbourne Cup off a quick back up is a proven practice and that also suits Shocking, he is lightly raced in terms of being a staying prospect and has good scope for further improvement going to the 3200m, the alley is the biggest query facing this horse as he is drawn wide and there is not a lot of pace engaged, do not be surprised if Corey Brown goes forward and races closer to the pace, either way he has a sensational turn of foot and with only 51kg on his back will be the one they have to hold out in deep stretch.

Here is Shocking winning the Lexus Stakes…

No6 Roman Emperor (G1) – having its 6th start this preparation and last start finished 2nd in the Caulfield Cup btn 2.3l by Viewed, no doubt Viewed got the dream trip that day and all the luck in running whilst Roman Emperor got held up at a critical stage entering the straight and was entitled to finish a lot closer to Viewed that day, he is likely to get one of the runs of the race in a better than midfield position and will look the winner somewhere in the stretch, if Shocking gets no luck in running Roman Emperor will win the race but at the weights Shocking clearly has his measure.

Here is Roman Emperor winning the Aussie Derby…

No20 Daffodil (G1-) – also comes through the Caulfield Cup like Roman Emperor and gets in here well weighted with only 51.5kg, was making strong headway down the outside in the stretch run of the Caulfield Cup hitting the line very hard suggesting the step to 3200m totally suits, prior to that was an unlucky 4th behind Vosne Romanee in the Kelt Capital Stakes in New Zealand, came out and won the AJC Oaks at Randwick at the end of last preparation which is a strong traditional lead up pointer to Melbourne Cups of past years, drawn a wide gate which is no concern as it will go back and be ridden for luck, looks to be totally suited by the Flemington layout.

No1 Viewed (G1-) – no doubt this horse is a true G1 warrior as proven winning this race last year and the Caulfield Cup this year but is being asked to carry a record weight if it is to repeat last years success here, won the Caulfield Cup 2 starts ago and looked a world beater doing it but then looked very flat when a grinding 3rd in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday btn 2.4l by Scenic Shot and Miss Maren at WFA, admittedly was doing its best work on the line but form refs out of that WFA contest suggest it performed 8kg below the level it showed winning the Caulfield Cup, trained by master staying trainer Bart Cummings but simply the Mackinnon run and the big weight and the pace scenario are against it here, class will carry it a long way but not up to winning this year based on those factors.

Here is the 2008 Melbourne Cup won by Viewed…

No11 Alcopop (G2+) – started its racing career on Melbourne Cup day last year winning over 1200m at Morphettville and has won 4 from 4 this preparation including a 3.3l G2 score last start in the Herbert Power over 2400m at Caulfield defeating Shocking, Alcopop got the dream trip that day and Shocking tracked it into the race and suffered heavy contact at a vital stage when trying to make headway with Alcopop, has not raced since which is a query and Shocking has hit a new level and is rock hard fit on the back of winning the Lexus on Saturday as formlines out of that race prove, has claims but the unusual lead up is a big concern.

Outside place contenders in predicted finishing order: Allez Wonder (G2), Mourilyan (G2?), Changingoftheguard (G2?).

Predicted Finishing Order:

1st. Shocking (No21)
2nd. Roman Emperor (No6)
3rd. Daffodil (No20)
4th. Viewed (No1)
5th. Alcopop (No11)
6th. Allez Wonder (No22)
7th. Mourilyan (No5)
8th. Changingoftheguard (No23)

Win Betting: Back Shocking to win the race with good confidence, if he didn’t have the bad barrier we would be happy to make him a 3/1 chance in this race, the bad barrier makes us mark him up as a 9/2 chance but he is still the clear top elect. Currently trading at 10/1 to 11/1 he represents very good value, outlay 4 units. The major danger is Roman Emperor and he is currently 17/2 to 9/1 in different markets which is still good value, we have him marked up as a 11/2 chance here, outlay 2 units as a secondary level bet if Shocking fails to fire.

Shocking – outlay 4 units @ 10/1 or 11.00
Roman Emperor – outlay 2 units @ 8/1 or 9.00

Place Betting: Shocking is outstanding value for place punters, currently on offer at 3/1 to 4/1 in different markets for the place, simply outlay with big confidence as this is the best bet of any in the Melbourne Cup, outlay 10 units.

Shocking – outlay 10 units @ 13/4 or 4.25

Lay Betting: With out top picks being the ones in the market it is difficult to find a big value lay, with confidence strong for us around the top 2 chances and Daffodil listed 3rd on our finishing order we have left the top 2 in the real betting markets out of the top 3 being Viewed and Alcopop, of these 2 Viewed is proven and has Bart Cumming in his corner and this means Alcopop as equal favourite on exchanges at 5.80 represents the value lay for us.

Exotic Betting: [Trifecta - 1st 6,20,21 / 2nd 1,6,11,20,21 / 3rd 1,5,6,11,20,21,22,23 (Total 72 combinations)] [Quinella 6,20,21 with 1,6,11,20,21 (9 combinations)]

Other Flemington Races…..

Flemington R3 No9 Think Money (2) – as the old saying goes class usually prevails in staying races and even more so when a horse is well weighted as this one is, last start finished 3rd btn 1.3l in G2 company behind The Sportsman over 2500m at M Valley and last prep was only btn 2.3l in the AJK Oaks at G1 level and 2.2l in the Doomben Stakes at G3 level, still a maiden but has shown the required class to win in this company and carries that solid form in here and well weighted for master trainer of stayers Bart Cummings who had been aiming this one at The Melbourne Cup so sure to be primed for this assault.

Flemington R5 No2 Noesis (1) – playing the big value angle here, admittedly the hot odds on favorite Definitely Ready looks a very smart horse on the make but at 1.55 on exchanges is way to short to come into, there is merit around Noesis who is by the very good speed sire Exceed And Excel, 1st up from a spell here with blinkers on 1st time on the back of a widening 8l trial win at Tatura over 850m, didn’t beat much but that trial win suggested it is ready to produce 1st up here, won on debut 4 starts ago over this track and distance in the $100K Listed Inglis Plate 3l*4l with Helpmann back in 4th btn 7.1l, Helpmann was beaten 6.2l by Definitely Ready 2 starts ago so on bare form Noesis has claims here at a massive price and is likely to start around the 40/1 mark on Betfair, if it is anywhere near right it may shake this at a huge quote, worth specking.

Flemington R2 No12 Midnight Wine (1) – hit a new career peak last start winning by 4l at Ballarat over 1600m when 4th up from a spell by 4l, that win was against much weaker but spaced her rivals with a sharp turn of foot when asked hitting the line hard suggesting the step to 1700m here will pose no problems, form refs through the btn brigade suggest she is up to this class, drawn a good gate and likely to get one of the runs of the race, ticks enough boxes to warrant support.

Flemington R2 No8 Bubble Below (1) – blinkers go on 1st time for this 4yo daughter of Hussonet and sharp improvement can be expected on 3 runs so far this prep, good effort last start when 3l 6th to Lady Lynette over 1600m in Listed company, closed hard from off the pace with similar sectionals to smart types Purple and Prima Nova, last prep showed above average ability over shorter btn 2.8l 2nd by Typhoon Tracy (Lstd 1200m) and 2.2l 4th to Romneya (G2 1500m), step to 1700m totally suits and sure to appreciate the long Flemington straight getting every chance to wind up fully in deep stretch.