Saturday Australian Previews – Big Value Day
Nathan Lynch has a big day down-under on Saturday. Did out the value, straight from the horses mouth!
Flemington R2 No6 Hanks (1) - superbly bred type by Encosta De Lago out of the Seattle Slew mare Sister Fromseattle who is a half sister to multiple Group 1 winner and highly successful sire Dehere, comes into this having mere 3rd career start currently undefeated, subject to big improvement for fitness and experience here, big effort last start over 1300m at Sandown coming from last to win going away over 1300m at Sandown, hit the line very strongly suggesting this step up in trip should pose no problems, defeated a high class field for the grade including Sweet Lorraine 5th and Shoot Through 6th which both provide form refs back to the likes of Stone Black and Starspangledbanner suggesting this one is clearly above the likes of Tribunal and Shamoline Warrior on exposed form who both are 1st and 2nd favourite in this field, a value commodity here that warrants serious respect on the 3rd line of betting.
Flemington R2 No11 Zapurb (1) - 3rd up from a spell here going to 1800m for the 1st time and sure to appreciate the trip on breeding being by Zabeel out of the high class Rhythm mare Purple Groove who won the Lets Elope Stakes over 1400m and is also the dam of Zapurple also by Zabeel who won the South Australian Oaks, last start chased home the highly touted Star Scream over 1500m at Moonee Valley btn 1l with a big 2.8l margin back to 3rd, Diamond Cowboy 4th btn 3.6l by Zapurb was only 2.3l adrift of Tribunal the start prior suggesting Zapurb is clearly above Tribunal and stepping to 1800m has more scope for improvement again, books have it currently 9.50 and likely to drift further in betting, along with Hanks it represents the value option in this race and warrants respect.
Flemington R6 No1 Majestic Music (2) – highly impressive last start and hit a new career peak scoring by 3l at Morphettville in the Listed LIndsay Park Guineas over 1600m, settled well back then made smooth headway 4 and 5 deep to hit the front early stretch drawing clear extending the margin to the line, form refs back through the btn brigade give it the clear edge at level weights here, stays at 1600m here and totally suited on breeding being by Al Maher out of the Royal Academy mare Regal Flute who looked a well above average prospect winning 1 from 2 career starts in short race career, overall quality of this field well below true G2 quality, looks clearly superior on exposed form.
Flemington R6 No8 Livia (1) – represents the astute David Hayes yard and comes into this having mere 5th career start with good scope for further improvement on the back of winning impressively last time out over 1600m at Sandown on slow going, came from last with a strong turn of foot in a leader dominated affair defeating a smart field for the class, clearly superior and every chance to measure up here, will love the big Flemington layout, well bred for the trip being by Galileo out of the city winning and stakes performed Flying Spur mare Flying Spice, warrants minor respect as a saver bet if Majestic Music fails to fire.
GROUP 1 METROPOLITIAN HANDICAP - Backing 3 horses in this at 25/1, 70/1 and 17/1, very good value betting affair.
Randwick R7 No17 The Embassy (1) – lightly raced as a staying prospect and keeps hitting a new level each time asked, winner 4 of last 5 starts and in a real purple patch at present, last start made smooth headway to score easily over 2400m at Rosehill by 2.3l, form refs through the btn brigade suggest is well weighted based on scope for further improvement against the top chances in the betting market, likely for a dream trip tracking a true tempo from midfield after drawing the 4 alley, will be closing off hard in deep stretch and may prove the one they have to hold out close home, 25/1 is excellent value, expect specking for it come race day.
Randwick R7 No18 Nothin’ Leica Cat (1) – 3rd up from a spell here on the back of two moderate efforts over unsuitable distances, likely big improver with blinkers on 1st time here and stepping up to its optimum trip of 2400m, best form is on rain effected going including 4th in the AJC Oaks last prep when having only its 5th career start, also ran 2nd to Purple in the Queensland Oaks btn 1.3l on slow going, currently being bet at 70/1 in this race which is a ridiculously big price, must speck at those odds with rapid improvement expected….we landed Newport in this race last year at 50/1, history may repeat itself!
Randwick R7 No8 Six O’Clock News (1) - 5yo gelding by Zabeel over from New Zealand for astute trainer of stayers P Busuttin, having 5th run this prep and ready to peak now, was a G2 winner at Ellerslie last prep by 1.3l and form refs out of that race put it right in the mix here at the weights, also finished 2nd to Red Ruler as a 3yo over 2100m in Group 1 company at Ellerslie, if it finds its bets form here it may surprise at the very good odds of 17/1 which is currently being bet, expect it to drift to better than 20/1 closer to post time.
Flemington R7 No3 Maldivian (1) – 3rd up from a spell here and fitter for last start effort when 4th btn 1l in The Underwood Stakes over 1800m behind Heart Of Dreams, copped a tough trip wide in transit and hit the front in the stretch before being worn down close home, won the WS Cox PLate last year defeating Zipping 1l who one start earlier was btn 1.2l by Littorio in this race, form refs suggest is well up to winning here as the premier WFA horse over 2000m last season, ready to peak now.
Randwick R2 No8 Jigsaws (1) – 2yo 1st starter and very well bred by Shamardal out of the Gone West mare Picture Puzzle representing the astute Snowden yard, drawn a superb gate in the 4 alley to get one of the runs of the race, given a typical Snowden trial in prep for debut when 0.8l 2nd to Epic in the quickest time of the day over 800m at Randwick on 21 September, looks a ready made 2yo and sure to take a lot of beating from the good gate going on breeding and exposed trial form.
Randwick R3 No3 Honest Truth (3) - very well bred type by Hussonet out of the Salt Lake mare Straight Lake who herself is by an Affirmed mare and is a half sister to the Group 3 winner Moonflute, won two trials including last by 11l before bolting in on debut by 5.8l at Newcastle in a very strong maiden over 900m running exactly the same time as the Open handicap over the same distance that day, form refs through its 11l trial win and debut race win suggest it is clearly superior to Rothesay the short priced favourite in this race, hit the line very strongly on debut and was still widening the margin on the chasing pack suggesting it should get the 1200m here no problems, looks a high class stakes horse on the make, this merely a stepping stone to better races over the Spring, perfect type to be aimed at The Coolmore Classic G1 for 3yo’s down the Flemington straight 6f course.
Randwick R4 No1 Nom Du Jeu (2) – 2nd up from a spell here and ships in from NZ for its first Australian start on this preperation on the way towards the major Melbourne Spring features, showed was back to near best form when 2nd btn 3.3l over 1600m in Listed company at Pukekohe last start, totally unsuited over the distance and sure to have come on in leaps and bounds off the back of that run, ran 2nd in The Caulfield Cup last year to All The Good, probably should have won, came from near last with massive pars in deep stretch that day, bred for this by Montjeu out of the Prized mare Prized Gem who won two Group 1 races including The Kelt Capital Stakes and The Brisbane Cup, simply looks well above this field at level weights, if ready will toy with his rivals here.
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