Aussie Punter Says England Will Win The Ashes….

England Evens to Lift The Ashes...

Its A Lock! – England To Win The Ashes.

Pro-Punter and Aussie Nathan Lynch says England will win The Ashes…

With the 2nd test now over thanks to a dominant England victory the overall course of this Ashes series from a betting perspective has less mystery associated to it….much less.

Bookmakers and Exchanges alike are offering a price of 2.00 or 1/1 (Evens) about England winning the series after securing a 1-0 lead in the series with 3 games to play. From the start of the series we predicted England to dominate and that has been further assured after the 2nd test with so many of the English team in good form compared to their Australian counterparts who have many of their main strike weapons either not available (Brett Lee) or not performing (Mitchell Johnson).

The question we assess here is simple. What are England’s true chance of winning this series after securing a 1-0 lead from a betting perspective? We include the words “from a betting perspective” for one simple reason, if the series is tied it does not mean Australia win the series as a TIE betting option is available in the betting market. We are not asking if Australia can retain the Ashes which happens even if they draw this series. The question is can England maintain a lead now they have one.

There is 3 games to play, so in essence once England win one more of the 3 games they can not be beaten by Australia, at worst they will tie the series if Australia win both of the other matches under that scenario which is highly unlikely.

The way England played the 2nd Test we feel they are currently a 40% chance minimum of winning any Test they play against Australia. This means from as mathematical perspective the following. 40% of winning the 3rd Test, 40% chance of winning also the 4th and 5th Test, so overall they this means they are really a 78.4% chance of winning minimum 1 of the 3 games left to play. This is represented by 40% + 40% of 60% + 40% of 36% = 40%+24%+14.4% = 78.4%. This equates to 90% of the major focus of the odds assessment in this question so in essence England are a 1.33 chance (taking into account minor variances) in true odds of winning as a minimum one more Test yet the odds of 2.00 are being offered about England winning the series which is basically the same thing when you consider Australia have to win the other two tests to stop England from winning the series if they win one more game as expected. The odds on offer as basically three times as good as they should be.

This is realistically a LOCK bet they will see punters collect in a few weeks time once this Test series is completed.

We backed England to win the series before a game was played at odds of 3.30 outlaying 5% for a potential profit of 11.50%. We will now have an additional 15% on them at odds of 2.00 to potentially take a 26.5% out of a market that in our assessment should cost the risk factor of around 79.5% of your bank to achieve, which is a much higher risk than the total 20% risk we carry for the same result. Anyway you look at it this betting market now represents huge value for us.