South Africa's Bafana Bafana (the boys, the boys) take on Iraq in the Confederation Cup opener
Live on BBCi, Sunday, 14th June 2009, 3pm Kick-off
The Confederation Cup opener between hosts South Africa and Iraq promises to be like many other international football competition openers and a battle to “not lose” rather than an effort to win and get some scores on the doors.
Iraq are on the rise and have beaten both China and Australia recently, whilst South Africa have won just two from their last six and a win against Equitorial Guinea hardly counts as a win at all!
This is a banana skin waiting to happen for the hosts and even a draw would make South Africa’s qualification for the next stage a difficult task because it would all come down to how many these teams concede against Spain and how many they score against New Zealand!
I’m on the draw at 4.2 on Betfair, in spades! South Africa are simply too short at 1.64 and I supsect there will be serious money to lay them at that price.
Openers are rarely goal fests and I am also taking the 0-0 and will trade it on Betfair for a profit around 30 minutes into the game if it pans out as expected although a livelier affair will see me cut my losses and take my money at an earlier stage.
My model has the 0-0 at 12.0 currently and at 30 minutes I expect to lay that off at around 5.5 for a profit across the board. Interestingly, the draw should be trading at 2.5 just after half time and I am looking to hold the draw to this point in a three runner race, since a goal from Iraq would have little impact on the trading position.
This promises to be a trading game and that’s exactly what I will do by taking Iraq to qualify out of the group and being quick off the mark and laying it back if the Iraqi’s fail to live up to my expectations.
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