Turkish Grand Prix, Istanbul Park, 7th June, 2009 – Live on BBC1

Are Jenson Button and Ross Brawn plotting another superior race startegy to scupper all-comers in the Turkish Grand Priix?

A thrilling final qualification session saw Sebastian Vettel pip Jenson Button for pole position in the Turkish Grand Prix and since the Turkish Grand Prix has only ever been won from pole position, Sebastian Vettel must be enormously pleased with that pole position.

Watch the Turkish Grand Prix LIVE online with the BBC- Click HERE

However, when car weights are taken into account, Button would still appear to have the fastest car in the Brawn and will not pit for the first time until lap 17 compared to Vettel’s estimated first pit stop at lap 15 and I am still feeling reasonably comfortable with the bet I took before practice for Jenson Button to win the Turkish Grand Prix, since when car weights are taken into account, Button was probably a couple a of tenths faster than Vettel and a poor first sector damaged Buttons pole position challenge on his last qualification lap.

Behind Button and Vettel on the grid, come Barrichello in the other Brawn and Webber in the other Red Bull, followed by Trulli in a Toyota, the two Ferraris (Raikonnen and Massa) and then Alonso in the first Renault. Lewis Hamilton’s desperate season continued when he failed to progress beyond the first qualification session and will start from 16th on the grid in his McLaren-Mercedes.

I am taking Jenson Button to buck the trend of pole position winners in the Turkish Grand Prix and that means reliance on superior race strategy from the Brawn team (something we have seen time and again this season). Jenson Button is currently available at 2.46 on Betfair, whilst Vettel is available at 2.7. so it seems that the market agrees with my analysis. I am pleased to have taken slightly better odds on Button (2.6) before first practice on Friday because the “corrected for weight” grid shows that Button has a clear advantage on a clear track and should take advantage of his extra starting fuel and go on and win the Turkish Grand Prix. Ross Brawn has said “We’re on lap 17 – if Vettel and Webber are longer than that they have a strategic advantage, if not we do.” I dont think Ross Brawn can make things any clearer than that and you can be sure that Mr Brawn KNOWS EXACTLY which laps the Red Bull cars will pit.

Fine weather and a modern track with good run off areas make a safety car an unlikely event in the Turkish Grand Prix, especially with soaring temperatures and zero chance of rain. No Safety Car can be backed on Betfair at around 1.72 which is a little skinny, but should see you almost double your investment.
Here is a good insight into the Turkish Grand Prix, from Youtube..

We have previously made good money from backing the pole sitter to be first lap leader, but the markets have spotted this one and Vettel is only available at 1.44 on Betfair. 1.44 is far too skinny since we have already seen a change of leader on the first lap this season and I am hoping for a repeat performance to buck the trend in the Turkish Grand Prix along with the pole sitter not being the winner of the race. My reasoning is that Button was just one tenth of a second behind Vettel and that included being two tenths down on the first sector, so even with the extra weight of extra fuel on board, Button could well be faster than Vettel anyway. The Turkish track is difficult for overtaking until the the small turn 11 between the two long straights and if Button has better straight line speed and we know he can be brave on the brakes and smooth in the turns, then Button can take Vettel here, even if Vettel is able to get to the first corner ahead of the Brawn driver. At 3.95 on Betfair, I think this worth a small investment and I will certainly be taking an interest in Button in this market.

In Summary

Back Button to win at 2.46 on Betfair

Back No Safety Car on Betfair at 1.72

Back Button to be first lap leader at 3.95 (small investment only)