Derby Preview…Introducing From the Horses Mouth

Introducing our Australian Correspondent..

Sea the Stars Tipped for the Derby

Racing Diary is proud to announce that Nathan Lynch from Australian website www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au is joining the team. Nathan will post betting tips and will have a unique perspective on racing. Certainly with Royal Ascot in 2 weeks he will have a good insight on the Aussie horses.

Nathan starts with a preview of The Derby and goes head to head with Carl Harris who is on Fame and Glory!

Sea the Stars Will Win The Derby…From The Horses Mouth…

INVESTEC DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (3yo)
Going: GOOD. Number of runners: 13. Distance 1m4f10y
Run on Saturday 6 June 2009, Epsom 3.45

1 4-1 Age Of Aquarius 28 3 9-0 A P O´Brien P J Smullen b c Galileo (IRE) – Clara Bow (FR) (Top Ville)
Rating – G3+
2nd up here for this season on the back of scoring over 11f at Lingfield in a small 5 horse field defeating Montaff and Father Time by tight margins, form out of that race only par for the grade and confirmed by prior form of the beaten brigade, minor scope for further improvement but needs to lift significantly to be competitive here.

2 -31 Black Bear Island 23 3 9-0 A P O´Brien Ryan Moore b c Sadler´s Wells (USA) – Kasora (IRE) (Darshaan)
Rating – G1
3rd up from a spell this season and ready to peak here going to 12f on the back of an impressive 10f G2 win at York over Freemantle and Sans Fontieres, form franked to major degree as it came from the back and closed best of all that day and was still strong on the line suggesting further here no problems, Freemantle was a super impressive 10l winner the start prior and Sans Frontieres was only btn 2.7l by delegator the start prior when 2nd in a very competitive G3 over 8f at Newmarket, good scope for further improvement here, bred for this by Sadler’s Wells out of the Darshaan mare Kashora making it a full relation to High Chapparal, Helena Molony and Treasure The Lady.

3 1-8 Crowded House 23 3 9-0 B J Meehan Not Notified ch c Rainbow Quest (USA) – Wiener Wald (USA) (Woodman (USA))
Rating – G2+
Won the Racing Post Trophy over 8f at the end of juvenile season by a widening 3.5l over 8f but form out of that race now looks slightly suspect as a G1 form reference, didn’t come on when resuming 8th behind Black Bear Island beaten 4.5l, likely improver here 2nd up for fitness but needs to lift considerably to find G1 form here, not likely.

4 113 Debussy 30 3 9-0 J H M Gosden Jimmy Fortune b c Diesis – Opera Comique (FR) (Singspiel (IRE))
Rating – Lst+
Saluted 2 runs back at Epsom over 10f by 1.2l over Midday and subsequent form out of that race suggests is merely up to Listed level, confirmed that though pattern last start when btn 3.5l by Golden Sword into 3rd at Group 3 level, 4th up here and definitely not subject to major improvement which is required to figure, making up the numbers at best.

Fame and Glory trained by Aidan O'Brien

5 -11 Fame And Glory 27 3 9-0 A P O´Brien J A Heffernan b c Montjeu (IRE) – Gryada (Shirley Heights)
Rating – G1+?
Winner 4 from 4 in short career, came of age as a juvenile winning at G1 level having 2nd start as a juvenile in France, minor query over form out of that race since as a G1 form reference, G3 winner 1st up this preparation followed by a resounding 5l win at G2 level last start at Leopardstown but that was in a small 5 horse field over 10f and it was swishing its tail and under pressure close home despite thw widening margin, no major scope for further improvement, well bred by Montjeu out of the Shirley Heights mare Gryada making it a half relation to Grampain and Guaranda, despite being bred for 12f it may be best suited over the 10f to 11f at this stage of its career, very serious hope all the same.

6 2-3 Gan Amhras 35 3 9-0 J S Bolger Not Notified b c Galileo (IRE) – All´s Forgotten (USA) (Darshaan)
Rating – G1?
2nd up from a spell subject to considerable improvement on 1st up effort when 3rd to Sea The Stars beaten 2.2l in the 2000 Guineas, chased the leaders that day and finished best of the on pacers after coming again over the final 100y hitting the line well, on breeding should get the 12f but it is a minor query, subject to considerable improvement and has serious place claims if it improves again as expected and if it gets the trip.

7 -41 Golden Sword 30 3 9-0 A P O´Brien C O´Donoghue b c High Chaparral (IRE) – Sitara (Salse (USA))
Rating – G3+
One of the likely pacemakers for the O’Brien yard on the back of winning in G3 company last start over this distance at Chester by 2l, form out of that race only par for the grade, 3rd up now with minor improvement expected but has a fair bit against it including depth of overall class and likely use as one of the pacemakers for a yard that has 6 entries here, prefer elsewhere against slightly weaker.

8 1-5 Kite Wood 23 3 9-0 Saeed Bin Suroor L Dettori b c Galileo (IRE) – Kite Mark (Mark Of Esteem (IRE))
Rating – G2-
Comes into this having 2nd run this season for the Godolphin yard, G3 winner at the end of last season in only an average G3 through subsequent form references over 8f at Ascot, 1st up this prep tracked leaders with a good trip in transit but was one paced when asked in deep stretch to finish 5th btn 2l by Black Bear Island, minor improvement expected here and likely to be on pace again but needs to make significant improvement to figure as a major player, not in this grade currently.

9 0-2 Masterofthehorse 30 3 9-0 A P O´Brien Richard Hughes b c Sadler´s Wells (USA) – Shouk (Shirley Heights)
Rating – G2
2nd up this season coming in here on the back of finishing 2nd btn 2l by Golden Sword in G3 company at Chester over same distance it faces here, will be much fitter for that outing and subject to considerable improvement, best effort was as a juvenile when 3rd btn 0.5l by Sea The Stars on a yielding track at the Curragh, looks to be better on softer ground than it will encounter here, outside place claims.

10 1-2 Montaff 28 3 9-0 M R Channon R Hills b c Montjeu (IRE) – Meshhed (USA) (Gulch (USA))
Rating – G2-
Makes a significant jump in class here having 2nd run this term on the back of chasing home Age Of Aquarius for 2nd btn 0.2l in a small 5 horse G3 over 11f at Lingfield, hit the front in deep stretch then died on its run that day, subject to decent improvement for fitness on that run, will be on pace tracking leaders and should get every chance but rise in class is against it even with improvement taken into account.

11 7-4 Rip Van Winkle 35 3 9-0 A P O´Brien J Murtagh b c Galileo (IRE) – Looking Back (IRE) (Stravinsky (USA))
Rating – G1

Having 2nd run this season here on the back of finishing 2.5l 4th to Sea The Stars in the 2000 Guineas, got held up at a critical stage when making strong headway 2f out that day, unlucky not to finish closer and subject to considerable improvement stepping to 12f here, solid claims.

12 1-1 Sea The Stars 35 3 9-0 John M Oxx Not Notified b c Cape Cross (IRE) – Urban Sea (USA) (Miswaki (USA))
Rating – G1+
2nd up for this term here on the back of winning the 2000 Guineas by 1.5l over 8f defeating Delegator. Mastercraftsman 5th btn 4l has since franked the form winning the Irish 2000 Guineas by a big margin in dominant fashion, got a god trip in midfield then let down with a sharp turn of foot hitting the line strongly widening the margin over the final furlong, subject to decent improvement on that run going to 12f and should have no problem handling the extra 4f especially on breeding being out of the blue hen matriarch Urdan Sea who won the Arc and has produced such notable stayers such as Galileo, Black Sam Bellamy, My Typhoon and All Too Beautiful, likely to get a near perfect trip in midfield tracking a solid and true tempo, the other major chances will have to run it down from further back, looks the best suited here on exposed form, ticks the most boxes of any of these, the one to beat.

13 21 South Easter 29 3 9-0 W J Haggas N Callan ch c Galileo (IRE) – Dance Treat (USA) (Nureyev (USA))
Rating – G3+
Very lightly raced type coming in here having mere 3rd career start on the back of winning a bunched G3 last start over 10f at Chester, prior form references through that race suggest at best was only par for G3 grade that day, subject to improvement here but needs to lift considerably to be competitive against the best of these, not likely.

PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER AND ASSESSED ODDS

1st Sea The Stars – 4.10

2nd Rip Van Winkle – 5.50

3rd Black Bear Island – 6.60

4th Fame And Glory – 7.60

5th Gan Amhras – 10.00

The strongest form race to follow into this race is the 2000 Guineas which was won by SEA THE STARS in very impressive fashion, it definitely ticks the most boxes of these, RIP VAN WINKLE was slightly unlucky in that race and should have finished closer and looks the best of the rest especially over the 12f trip encountered here, BLACK BEAR ISLAND has good scope and is the unknown quantity, minor queries exist around FAME AND GLORY on its last start wide margin win, prepared to risk it here with value found in the other 3 previously mentioned, rounding out the top 5 is Gan Amhras who finished 3rd in the 2000 Guineas.

BETTING ADVICE

Win Betting: Sea The Stars is assessed as a 4.10 chance and at 4.30 on the exchanges currently is slightly overs compared to its true price, not much of an advantage but it does look the one to beat here. Black Bear Island is decent overs at 9.80 on the exchanges compared to its assessed price of 6.60, it has good advantage andm ay be worth a minor play as the value commodity to save on if Sea The Stars fails to fire.

Lay Betting: Fame and Glory looks the best laying opportunity currently trading at 5.30 on the exchanges compared to its true quote of 7.60.

Bottom line here is that the betting public has basically got this race pretty much right when looking at our assessed true value quotes.

Nathan Lynch is from www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au.

A full copy of the preview can be found at www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au/features.html