Money Talks…It Says Brown is on his way!
Is Brown a Dead Man Walking?
Pressure may be mounting in Westminster on Gordon Brown, but looking at Betfair, in racing terminology he is now off the bridle and struggling to stay in the race! Money has come today and Alan Johnson is now favourite to be the next Prime Minister.
David Cameron was favourite and certainly the Conservatives are 1.15 to win the election, but now Brown looks a goner. Alan Johnson is 2.66 favourite to be the next PM. The market for leaders exit dates shows that Gordon Brown is now 2.3 to be gone by the end of June, not June 2010 but in less than 4 weeks. The Labour Party now have only 18% support in the polls (the lowest figure ever) and the Conservatives hold a 22 point lead. No wonder David Cameron is calling for a general election! Labour MP’s could well move to oust Gordon Brown as they worry about their seats in the next general election. If they get rid now they could have a year to build up the support to stay on the Westminster gravey train. The market supports that view.
The money is coming in relatively big volumes, for a market that is normally quiet. You can Back or Lay those odds but it is not looking good for Gordon Brown.
It is like rats leaving a sinking ship with Jacqui Smith and now Communities Secretary Hazel Blears has quit the cabinet, increasing the pressure on Gordon Brown. Health Secretary Alan Johnson has been forced to deny he is ready to take over amid reports of a backbench plot to oust the PM. But the Betfair market says otherwise! Sky News has just reported that Labour MP’s are trying to get him to resign. They have a copy of an email doing the rounds and a plot is underway!
Adam Boulton, Political Editor at Sky News, says the decisive factor of course will be how the party does in this week’s council and European Elections. Of course they will lose and history could repeat itself. Boulton says;
Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair were both forced out before their time and John Major spent his last few years fighting for survival until the 1997 General Election gave him the coup de grace. Basically for a leader to go he must lose his authority both with his own Government team and with backbenchers, fearful he is dragging them to oblivion. Margaret Thatcher suffered first the loss of her Chancellor Nigel Lawson in 1989 and then in 1990 the resignation of Sir Geoffrey Howe. Read Jacqui Smith for Lawson, and wonder if Alistair Darling perhaps could be the Geoffrey Howe figure.
If the plot is in the offing, the market knows. If this was a race it would be a real gamble with someone knowing something! What do you think? Back Brown or Lay Brown… your opinion could make you money on Betfair…
