Trends Preview of Saturday at Sandown by Guest Tipster Dave Mc Auley of Formbet

Dave McAuley of Formbet uses his own advanced rating system to mark your cards for three races at Sandown, Saturday, 25th April. 2009. Dave will be running a “live” blog on his website from 1pm on Saturday afternoon, covering all of the races/tips.

Get Dave McAuleys selections for a great day of racing at Sandown

Bet365 Gold Cup – Sandown 3:10

It’s always re-assuring when you rate a race, analyse the trends and have a Tony McCoy runner top-rated and that is the case with Hennessy. Carl Llewellyn knows what it take to win a long distance chase and McCoy will give this every assistance from the saddle as he did when 2nd in the Scottish National last weekend. At this stage HENNESSY rates excellent each-way value at 14/1 with Hills based on the trends analysis.

However, he is joint top-rated with OSCAR PARK who looks seriously unexposed and fits almost all the stats as a result. Showed some promise at times last season and very lightly races this season so will be fresher than most and with Timmy Murphy in the plate he should get every assistance from the saddle.

Third best is New Little Bric who loves it round Sandown and almost fits the ideal stats-profile. He could be worth a small cover bet on the other two main bets.

HENNESSY 5pts each way 14/1 (William Hill)

OSCAR PARK 5pts each way 16/1 (Generally available)

NEW LITTLE BRIC 1pt each way 16/1 (Generally available)

Trend analysis of Bet365 Gold Cup

Bet365 10-year trends –:

1. 8 of the last 10 winners were first or 2nd season chasers
2. 9 of the last 10 winners had run between 4 and 17 times over fences
3. No winner had scored more than a total of 2 handicap career wins
4. 7 of the last 10 winners were between 7 and 9 years of age
5. The ideal weight band is between 10-08 and 11-0 which has provided 4 wins and 10 places (an extra point for those rated between 129 and 142 which has provided 7 of the last 10 winners
6. Only one favourite has won in the last 10 years
7. A horse must have won on good or good to firm as 9 of the last 10 winners had done.
8. 9 of the last 10 placed in the top 3 on one of their last 3 starts
9. 4 winners finished 2nd last time out but 4 winners were unplaced or failed to complete last time

Last 10 winners –:

2008 MONKERHOSTIN – P Hobbs 25/1

2007 HOT WELD – F Murphy 6/1

2006 LACDOUDAL – P Hobbs 10/1

2005 JACK HIGH – T Walsh 16/1

2004 PUNTAL – M Pipe 25/1

2003 AD HOC – P Nicholls 7/1

2002 BOUNCE BACK – M Pipe 14/1

2001 AD HOC – P Nicholls 14/1

2000 BEAU – N Twiston-Davies 6/1cf

1999 EULOGY – R Rowe 14/1

Bet365 Mile – Sandown 3:45

The trends are marginally pointing to Paco Boy with Virtual a very close 2nd. However, I don’t back odds-on and there is one more stat that I have not mentioned which is that “50 horses have lined up that were beaten by 6 lengths or further and only 3 of those have won”. Paco Boy was beaten almost 10 lengths last time out.

I think the value call is to go with the likely 2nd favourite VIRTUAL. John Gosden is in superb form at the moment, his horses are running very well fresh and at 3/1 or 7/2 he is a value proposition.

VIRTUAL – 5pts win

Last 13 years winners -:

2008 MAJOR CADEAUX – R Hannon 3/1

2007 JEREMY – Sir M Stoute 2/1F

2006 ROB ROY – Sir M Stoute 6/4F

2005 HURRICANE ALAN – R Hannon 5/1

2004 HURRICANE ALAN – R Hannon 25/1

2003 DESERT DEER – M Johnston 11/10F

2002 SWALLOW FLIGHT – G Wragg 2/1F

2001 NICOBAR – I Balding 16/1

2000 INDIAN LODGE – A Perrett 9/4F

1999 HANDSOME RIDGE – J Gosden 5/1

1998 ALMUSHTARAK – K Mahdi 4/1

1997 WIXIM – R Charlton 5/1

1996 GABR – R Armstrong 13/2

Never mind the last 10 years trends, I’m taking in 13 as it’s my lucky number

Bet365 Mile 13-year trends:-

Every winner raced at either Doncaster or Newmarket last time out had previously contested the Earl Of Sefton Stakes

1. 10 winners were in the first 3 in the betting
2. 4 and 5yo’s have won 10 of the last 13
3. Michael Stoute and Richard Hannon have won 5 of the last 6 renewals
4. 12 of the last 13 winners had at least won a Listed contest
5. Only 1 winner had won it’s previous star
6. 11 winners raced in GP3 company on their previous start
7. The last 10 winners had an official rating of at least 109
8. 11 winners raced placed 1st or 2nd on one of their last 3 starts

Bet365 Gordon Richard Stakes – Sandown 4:15

Not ‘that’ strong a trends race and they do not help in narrowing down the field much, but they seem to suggest it rests between Tartan Bearer, Halicarnassus, Pipedreamer and Buccellati. Given the overall poor record of favourites in this race, and the fact that Michael Stoute’s runners are needing their first run, it may be best to oppose Tartan Bearer. However, it makes little sense to back the short-priced Pipedreamer for the win and Halicarnassus may be outside the ideal price bracket of less than 8/1. So the best option may be to back the in-form Andrew Balding’s BUCCELLATI each-way who is likely to be around the 6/1 or 7/1 range. From a trends viewpoint though it’s probably one to leave alone.

BUCCELLATI – 1pt each-way

Last 13 winners –:

2008 ASK – Sir M Stoute 8/13F

2007 RED ROCKS – B Meehan 11/4

2006 DAY FLIGHT – J Gosden 10/3

2005 WEIGHTLESS – A Perrett 14/1

2004 CHANCELLOR – J Dunlop 13/2

2003 INDIAN CREEK – D Elsworth 3/1

2002 CHANCELLOR – B Hills 9/2

2001 ISLAND HOUSE – G Wragg 9/2

2000 LITTLE ROCK – Sir M Stoute 5/2F

1999 GENEROUS ROSI – J Dunlop 10/3

1998 GERMANO – G Wragg 8/1

1997 SASURO – G Wragg 13/2

1996 SINGSPIEL – 11/10F

The 13 year trends for the Gordon Richard stakes –:

1. 12 of the last 13 winners were rated at least 105 in the official ratings
2. 11 of the last 13 winners had previously won over 10 furlongs
3. Sir M Stoute and J Dunlop have won this 5 times between them
4. All the last 20 winners came from the first 5 in the market
5. Only 3 favourites have won in the last 13 renewals
6. 12 from 13 winners were priced at less than 8/1
7. 12 of the last 13 winners had won at least a listed race